Description: The author describes two papers that find that stock returns in the 15 days around the new moon are double the stock returns in the 15 days around the full moon. Is this true, even though psychological studies have established no causal link?

Description: Review of the address given by Richard H. Thaler, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago at the Investment Section at the Society of Actuaries meeting in New York on October 20.

Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: This article explores the market volatility of 2008, and addresses the following question: “was the market behaving inefficiently as appeared to be the case in 2008, or was there something truly rational going on, which for most people was hard to see?”