Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The purpose of this session is to enhance understanding of what it means to have an adequate reserve based on cash-flow testing by taking the audience into the world of interest rate models and interest rate model generators.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of a reinsurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. Bounds on the expected exercise value of a financial option are considered also because the mathematical model used for valuing options is similar to that used in reinsurance net premium calculations. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.

Description: Option bounds are obtained in a discrete-time framework with transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial option pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs. The method proceeds by constructing the appropriate replicating portfolio at each trading interval. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: Constant maturity credit default swaps [CMCDS] are useful as hedging tools. In intensity model approach, the default time is defined as the first arrival time of the Poisson process. From the market quotes of CDS forward rates and bonds, we are able to numerically compute the default probabilities. Approximating CMCDS price depends largely on CDS forward rates’ volatilities and their correlations. This paper implements the price algorithm based on Brigo’s work [2006]. Starting with current market data such as CDS forward rates and nondefaultable bond prices, the paper describes steps involved to obtain the price CMCDS. The paper demonstrates the impact of convexity on the CMCDS price structure.

Description: We derive formulas for calculating the premiums that should be charged on policies in a discounted cash flow model with tax reserves and required assets that are determined by regulation. We also determine the unique division of required assets into “reserves” and “capital” that allows the product profitability to be correctly evaluated. That is, the profit after capital charges is zero if the product achieves the return assumed in pricing. We illustrate the concepts using whole life insurance and guaranteed minimum death benefit examples.

Description: This paper evaluates the current practice of operational risk management in the insurance sector. Operational risk is nothing new in insurance, but, because of regulatory requirements, companies have initiated computation of risk capital for their operational losses. The current effort to manage operational risk is not a naturally evolving phenomenon, and operational risk, in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s Basel II definition, is unlikely to be a significant cause of insurers’ failure. In addition, the current Basel II definition of operational risk is not suitable for the insurance sector. Consequently, the invention of models and tools based on the definition is incomplete and illusionary. My findings are based on the analysis of dozens of interviews with insurance industry professionals. I demonstrate the way operational risk is quantified in practice, show that the result obtained from this computation is of littl e use in managerial decision making and propose a set of policy recommendations illustrating the characteristics of operational risk in insurance. This study can be used as a platform for launching dialogues to initiate fresh thinking about operational risk in insurance beyond the current artificial and narrow boundaries.

Description: Many insurers preparing market consistent financial statements encounter the issue of developing volatility assumptions for equity options and guarantees that are longer than any observable market data. This presentation develops a generalization of the classical Black Scholes option pricing model that is consistent with the European CRO Forum's framework for valuing non-hedgeable risk. The presentation argues that, with reasonable parameter choices, the model fits observed volatility surfaces well enough that it can be used to estimate implied volatilities where no market data exists.

Description: This presentation discussed the Copula Methodology, which is the most popular methodology in multivariate modeling in finance and insurance. The definition, advantages, limitations, and uses of the Copula Methodology were presented. Some other multivariate models were discussed as well. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: In writing this note on the relationship between total return, duration and convexity, it was author's intent to produce a better understanding of Redington's theory of immunization. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 2.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this teaching session on liability modeling, the panelists discussed the key aspects of identifying and gathering the data required to construct models, the model building process including objectives and considerations, and the modeling process from the standpoint of policyholder and company behaviors.