Description: In this paper, chapter V of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors start with a discussion of how the recent economic environment with volatile interest rates has changed the valuation and surplus management process to one more dependent on actuarial judgment. In a discussion of surplus policy, the authors identify four “layers” of surplus which have been identified by scenario testing. These surplus layers, along with policy reserves, are based on specific invested assets. The paper discusses implications for the future and notes the actuary’s ability to advise management on surplus adequacy is a basic tool of risk management.

Description: This paper investigates the optimal multi-period proportional reinsurance strategy that minimizes the ruin probability of an insurer. Some conditions under which it is optimal to have no reinsurance are derived. Based on these results, a new concept, capital threshold of proportional reinsurance, is introduced. In the case of two periods, a lower bound of the capital threshold of proportional reinsurance is provided. Some economic implications and properties of this new concept are also discussed.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: The NAIC Life Risk-Based Capital Working Group has been working on modifications to the C-3 interest rate risk component of the statutory risk-based capital formula. Changes being considered may have a significant impact on the work of the valuation actuary. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 3. San Francisco Annual Meeting CA, October 17–20, 1999, Session 33PD.

Description: Presenters cover the outlook for credit defaults over the next 12 months and approaches used to price the debt market e.g., Merton's 1973 paper and subsequent developments. Attendees leave with an understanding of how the capital markets value debt issuance and knowledge of future trends in default risk. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 1: Washington, D.C. Spring Meeting, May 29–30, 2003, Session 10OF.

Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. The aim of this paper is to consider economic capital for a multi-line insurer and the fair allocation to lines of business. In addition, this paper also allows for a model with assets, liabilities and insolvency exchange option fairly priced, complete markets and no market frictions.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Extended periods of robust macroeconomic growth are healthy for investing.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Mathematical modeling of social phenomena

Description: Invest Fallacies: Active management overall performs different than passive management

Description: Investment Fallacies: The "Dollar Bill" Fallacy