Description: Back in the day, when data was scarce and computers were slow, actuaries were forced to use simple methods to account for risk. By far, the most common method was to add a margin, usually 5% to a “best estimate” calculation. Remarkedly, this method still works quite well in the aggregate. The problem is that, in many cases, decisions today require a more in-depth analysis. For example, how big a risk is a health plan really taking if it lowers its premiums by 10% to attract more members? This session will discuss techniques for measuring risk in today’s environment. Speakers will also share the results from the 5/50 research project, which forms the foundation for the techniques.

Description: What is a vitagion? Is there such thing as catastrophic longevity? What does a 1 in 200 year mortality loss event look like? How might actuaries use mortality scenarios in their practice? Explore how to move beyond simplistic stress testing with singular percentage shocks to building a robust set of information, derived from stochastically generated scenarios for longevity and excess mortality outcomes. This data can inform assumption setting, longevity swaps, capital levels, and risk management. These concepts apply to life insurers, pension actuaries, and reinsurers. By attending the session, you will: - Understand what is a loss exceedance curve is and how it may be useful to quantify tail risks. - Comprehend how to incorporate stochastic variability into longevity and excess mortality assumptions. - Find out what elements go into a stochastic prediction of extreme mortality events using nested models. - Learn how to add more depth to youractuarial assumptions.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: Dive into this review on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AIML) techniques for actuarial modeling for life & annuities. Presenters will showcase learnings from the recent SOA research paper "Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning – Practical Applications for Actuarial Modeling" (Nested Stochastic). The researchers will go over models and methodologies used to develop high-fidelity proxy models for various life & annuity applications.

Description: This webcast will detail interpretable machine learning techniques for participants to gain an intuition and understanding about the use of these techniques. We will discuss how to apply them, how to understand them, and how to avoid potential pitfalls.

Description: ALM and hedging can reap significant benefits from innovation in computation and operations research. Explore applications of static and dynamic optimization in two different ALM and hedging use cases. Insurers are increasingly moving offshore by establishing Bermuda captive reinsurers. In calculating the Bermuda Best Estimate Liability ('BEL'), reinsurers will need to segment assets to support liabilities in each treaty. A Linear Programming ('LP') problem can be formulated to tactically select assets in a way that minimizes the BEL and consequently the total asset requirement. Learn more about what US Variable Annuity Insurers face with the regulatory requirement to reflect 'future hedging strategy' in their statutory funding calculation. The traditional numerical method of finding the optimal hedging target and then allocating assets may encounter the curse of dimensionality with expanding product and economic environment complexity. A Reinforcement Learning algorithm may well fit this problem and provide insurers a solution for dynamic hedging.

Description: With seemingly unending demands on life & annuity companies for more intense and complex calculations, as well as greater sophistication around analytics, and all of this done at speed, never before has it been so important to seek out maximum efficiency in constructing models. In this session the panelists examine how the combination of various model efficiency approaches, pulling in many different facets of modeling and making it flexible enough to dial up or down various modeling components, can bring about incredible results. Not only does it become possible to produce and expand upon financial risk metrics via a building block approach, but also enables life insurers to produce analytics and dashboards to support strategic decisions that were simply not possible or cost effectively viable before.

Description: Discover the rapidly developing health and wellness industry during the Use of Health and Wellness Data in L&H Risk Assessment webcast. Our discussion includes the maximization of data usage through several different means, including current risk selection, creation of a dynamic ongoing assessment offering or substitution of traditional underwriting information to shorten the underwriting process. Come explore these different approaches as they affect the health and wellness industry. We will express the importance of a constantly changing data usage environment in order to better prepare insurers to maximize their data and drive health and wellness forward.

Description: Regression to the mean (RTTM) is inflating your health care intervention evaluations if you are not carefully managing it's omnipresent and significant impact RTTM is the statistical phenomenon which arises when comparing sequential data points when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, and states that with no other intervention, future observations will be closer to the average. Members who had high costs last year will, on average, have lower costs this year, even in the absence of any intervention or clinical program, simply by 'regressing' to the mean. This means that if your clinical programs are simply targeting members who had adverse medical experience last year, you’re targeting the wrong people. And if your savings methodologies are simply last year’s costs minus this year’s costs, the savings are inflated. By attending this session, you will be able to identify situations where RTTM will be a significant factor, how to eliminate it's impact when performing retrospective evaluations, how to identify prospects for clinical intervention with RTTM in mind, and more.

Description: Hear AM Best rating analysts discuss the rating process and the best capital adequacy ratio (BCAR), a quantitative foundation for AM Best’s assessment of carriers’ financial strength. The benchmarking of BCAR scores for various company types (national MCOs, BCBS plans, smaller regional plans) will be discussed. Look at how changes in investment and underwriting environment impacted the results over the past several years. Further, AM Best’s view of the quality of capital and various factors impacting the overall assessment of the balance sheet strength will be discussed.