Description: In this paper we shall present our results in terms of the estimation of human mortality rates, but the results carry over to other applications. We shall discuss a Bayesian model that encompasses both graduation [smoothing] and prediction.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to introduce the use of least squares for estimating parameters of mortality curves and discuss the advantages of this method.

Description: Demography is a very exciting subject. With a simple mathematical model, students can project a country's population forward 25, 59, 75 even 100 years. This paper will focus on six ideas from demography. They all can be useful to an actuary, yet none of them would be considered at any length if the actuary didn’t study demography.

Description: The investment risk generated by a stochastic interest rate is recognized as often the greatest risk associated with a whole life or retirement policy. Recent research has investigated the mathematics of this risk when the interest rate follows a stochastic process and the time to death is considered to be random. In this paper we focus on the use of the zero coupon bond as an investment instrument to fund a whole life policy. It is unlikely that a company will entirely fund a particular single policy with a zero coupon bond.

Description: Following Jorgensen and Paes De Souza 1994, Tweedie's compound Poisson distribution is fitted to private passenger automobile accident benefit data. The Tweedie process is a three parameter distribution which corresponds to a Poisson process for claim frequency with gamma distributed claim sizes. From Actuarial Research Conference 1995.

Description: This paper is a sequel to Shapiro et. al. in that it discusses a similar role for CAI in topics specific to the text Actuarial Mathematics, by Bowers et. al 1986. The topics covered are the previous topics of actuarial notation, basic concepts, and what-if analysis, along with some new ideas for the presentation of stochastic models.

Description: The theory underlying the Moving Weighted Average graduation method is restated in the language of linear algebra which provides for an enrichment of the family of formulas. A comparison of the results of applying six members of the family to 100 simulated data sets is provided.

Description: This paper introduces a new direction for evaluating numerically survival probabilities pointed out by H. Seal in his book ‘Survival Probabilities: The goal of Risk Theory’. Some of special cases can be considered as a weighted Poisson process with an infinitely divisible mixing distribution. This property is well known for the negative binomial case [gamma mixing distribution].

Description: The initial risk reserves in collective risk models vary according to the underlying claim distribution, and a suitable level of ruin probability. A thorough analysis of the needed initial surplus for various ruin probability levels is provided in eight meaningful examples. The claim distributions are drawn from various fields of insurance, including property damage and liability insurance.

Description: This paper establishes the need for home equity conversion schemes for the elderly. It then provides a review of literature pertinent to reverse mortgages paying particular attention to the different types of reverse mortgages and their associated risks. In an attempt to better quantify the general appreciation risk faced by financial institutions issuing reverse mortgages, ARIMA techniques are employed to model Canadian house prices in both current and real dollar terms.