Description: This paper uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore retirement cost projection variability. The analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part a subjective population projection model is developed, based on a beta-binomial distribution for the number of participants persisting through a given age. Probability statements regarding such items as the number of participants at a given age and the distribution of retirees are developed. The second part shows how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for retirement cost projections. Both the single-entry-age case and the multiple-entry-age case are considered. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper surveys the actuarial techniques connected with salary scale mathematics for the valuation of defined benefit pension plans. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper demonstrates how, under the projected benefit cost methods whereby the gains are reflected in the normal cost rate, gains determined at a given valuation date are amortized over the future working lifetime of the active employees included in the valuation as of that date.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the determination of the cost of vesting by a method not hitherto demonstrated to the Society. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.

Description: The objective of this paper, prepared by the Society of Actuaries Committee on Pension Principles and Related Research, is to examine the advantages and disadvantages of using select and ultimate interest and salary scale assumptions in the valuation of defined benefit pension plans. The technical issues involved and the effect of such assumptions on the incidence of plan cost are also studied. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: Financing a defined benefit pension plan can be accomplished in various ways. With the help of a one-life example, this paper gives an elementary actuarial perspective of the problems that arise when a new defined benefit pension plan is initiated, and of the various actuarial concepts and methods developed to ascertain the cost of these pension benefits. The paper shows the range of the cost alternatives conceptually available upon creation of the pension plan. Actuarial formulas are provided in footnotes. The paper is intended as an introduction to defined benefit pension cost determination as well as an elementary example which may be of value in explaining cost alternatives to an actuary's client. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1975, Vol. 27.

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: A mathematical framework for benefits and choices must be created to model benefit selection. This paper creates such a framework by defining benefit plans as reimbursement functions. These are then used with a defined choice function to calculate the cost deviation due to selection. Finally, utility functions can be applied to this framework to predict choice.

Description: This paper deals with the selection of appropriate interest and inflation assumptions, which is one of the most important considerations in the valuation of a defined benefit pension plan. The paper begins by describing a simplified model in which the only important consideration is the selection of an appropriate differential between interest and inflation assumptions. The discussion then considers some situations that might lead the actuary to attempt to select a realistic level of interest and inflation assumptions, in addition to an appropriate differential. The author's conclusion is that in some situations the absolute level of the interest and inflation assumptions can be all but meaningless, and the differential between the two assumptions is the important factor. In other situations the use of this technique will produce serious inaccuracies in the valuation results. As always, the actuary must analyze each situation in order to determine which of the available techniques will produce the best results with the least effort, given the degree of accuracy required. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28.