Description: This paper, first published in 1982 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 34, discusses the phenomenon of durational antiselection, a commonly observed steady and seemingly irreversible increase in loss ratios on mature blocks of individual health insurance policies. The author, William F. Bluhm, constructs a model to explain the deterioration of loss ratios over time, and to quantify the cumulative antiselection effect. This paper was awarded the 1980-82 Triennial Prize. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of discussion.

Description: Panel discusses trends in large health claims, recent experience, and future expectations, as well as the impact of managed care on large individual health claims under self-insured programs and under an HMO setting. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.

Description: It is the purpose of this paper to provide data derived from actual claim experience on lives age 65 and over in a form that will facilitate actuarial calculations involving modification of durations of hospital stay and variations in the allowances provided for miscellaneous services billed by the hospital. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1963, Vol. 15, pt. 1, No. 43.

Description: An analysis of the 1999-2011 experience of all Blues plans of betweeen $1.8 and $3.8 billion in annual revenue in 2010 to determine if there is any empirical evidence of an industry underwriting cycle. The analysis shows there is no such evidence.

Description: Introduction to the ACA @ 5 publication

Description: This article was presented at the 1978 SOA Spring Meeting and discussed the individual health insurance with issues such as: revisions in guaranteed renewable gross premiums adequacy of current policy and claim reserves and the new valuation tables. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 4, No. 4.

Description: Part II of a two-part series discussing individual market evolution from before the ACA through President Trump's first term.

Description: The Johns Hopkins ACG Team's comments regarding their participation in the Comparative Analysis of Claims-Based Tools for Health Risk Assessment.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: Open meeting of the Society's Health Benefit Systems Practice Advancement Committee and Health Section Council, as well as the American Academy of Actuaries' Health Practice Council. The three committees review ongoing projects in the Health Practice area. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 2.