Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: The article provides a summary of the Drake Risk & Opportunity Forum held on October 21, 2022. The forum was a hybrid conference that attracted more than 200 attendees from 17 states, two countries, 48 employers, and five universities. Following an introduction by the Zimpleman College of Business Dean, the forum held six sessions. First was an insurance company CRO panel followed by a panel of non-insurance company CROs. Gary Zhu shared his outlook for interest rates and capital markets. The fourth panel discussed insurance capital models. The fifth panel discussed environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria when building insurance company investment portfolios. The final session of the day was a discussion about the NAIC, how they operate, and their priorities for the coming year.

Description: How assumptions like market returns and variable like saving rate should be incorporated into sound financial planning. How to analyze retirement readiness.

Description: The paper demonstrates that the most popular rationalization for evolving glide paths is flawed and should be discarded. The paper also demonstrates that glide paths should generally evolve for investors that endeavor to optimize outcomes and reevaluate their portfolios regularly.

Description: This session is about the methods of projecting long-run stock returns using inflation rates from bond yield curves with incremental returns for risk taking based on historical data and the relationship between concurrent, expected and unexpected inflation rates and the rates of return on common stocks and U.S. government bonds and notes. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 5, No. 4.

Description: This panel at the SOA 1982 Spring Meeting in Colorado Springs presents a discussion on the implications of allocating specific assets to particular lines of business. The panel examines both the introduction and the management of specific allocation procedures and how the principal methods work in practice.

Description: The impact of Fed’s QE program on the financial markets has been enormous and profound. The tapering and the eventual removal of the stimulus will be equally enormous and profound, and may be disruptive. To adapt to the potential regime change in near future, some investment strategies have been proposed: (1) shorten duration to focus on the short end of the yield curve and create laddered portfolios; (2) reduce allocation to high yield bonds; (3) rotate out interest rate sensitive sectors such as utilities; and (4) use interest rate derivatives to hedge the interest rate uncertainties lying ahead. On the other hand, contrarians who see the QE program continuing may stay the course and consider (1) adding duration, (2) gaining exposure to high yield bonds, and (3) increasing allocation to utilities and telecoms.

Description: Complete issue of the August 2014 Risk Management newsletter.

Description: The asset portfolios of retirees’ serve many purposes including current income, liquidity, purchasing power, estate, tax minimization, and so on. Multiple objectives with different levels of importance lead to a complex asset allocation problem for retirees. Existing asset allocation methods normally focus on a subset of the multiple objectives of retirees in an approximate way. The simulation-based multiple objective asset allocation method objectively assesses each allocation plan against multiple objectives in a consistent way and provides a more holistic picture of possible outcomes. This information is critical for finding the optimal allocation plan. The optimization is based on the weighted performance relative to multiple objectives. At the same time, it requires more inputs and advanced modeling.