Description: This paper shows that the Esscher transform is also an efficient technique for valuing derivative securities if the logarithms of the prices of the primitive securities are governed by certain stochastic processes with stationary and independent increments. Two applications are presented, the first for valuing a European call option and the second for pricing derivative securities of multiple risky assets.

Description: This session at the 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium discusses issues related to variable and fixed deferred annuity modeling.

Description: This session at the 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium discusses the modeling of equity-indexed annuities including the assets and derivatives associated with the annuities.

Description: Panelists at this session at the SOA 1998 Maui I Spring Meeting present methods and models for determining policyholder behavior with respect to lapses and interest rates in order to value liabilities and embedded options in life and annuity products.

Description: 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The panelists addressed the practical implications of how to use value-at-risk in a real-life setting, risk-based surplus, and an update of the C-3 component of RBC. This session is a mix between the regulatory situation and quantitative analysis.

Description: In December 1997, the Society of Actuaries held a conference whose focus was actuarial and financial modeling. During the course of that conference, one of the speakers mentioned a number of technologies his firm was using for modeling, which were either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to some of the audience. The purpose of this paper is to define each of the technologies mentioned during that presentation and to briefly describe their distinguishing characteristics. The technologies discussed in this paper are statistical pattern recognition [SPR], neural networks [NNs], genetic algorithms [GAs], simulated annealing, fractal analysis, chaos theory, rule induction, data fusion algorithms [DFAs], data compression, fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning, and expert systems.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper about developing a model that will provide insight into the true inherent value of a property-liability insurance company from a market perspective.

Description: 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The panelists discussed applying economic scenario generators in the life insurance business, a particular generator that has been developed at SS&C Technology Company, a way of reducing the number of scenarios to get the maximum amount of information, and what to look for in a software vendor.

Description: This session at the 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on modeling issues for variable annuities from both a statutory and GAAP standpoint. Valuation actuary issues with respect to variable annuity modeling is also discussed.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 5 explores health cash-flow testing.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 3 looks at considerations in strengthening reserves as a result of cash flow testing results.

Description: This article discusses value at risk, VaR, and VaR modeling of the bank's portfolios that would recognize diversity and hedging. This article also covers the differences between classical VaR and the longer horizons required by the insurance industry and the feasibility of extending VaR to the insurance industry.

Description: This 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 15 focuses on life modeling.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 21 looks at advanced topics in annuity modeling.

Description: This paper suggests ways of presenting ideas from the theory of compound interest and actuarial mathematics using simulation on spreadsheets. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1997 Vol. 1.

Description: Discussion of the skills actuaries need going forward to be successful, and hence, incorporated into the new actuarial exam syllabus.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. Discusses the latest additions to the Handbook, recent developments/requirements in Canada, and current research to support the Dynamic Financial Condition Analysis Handbook.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium Proceedings, Session 11, discusses health financial projections and projection modeling in general.

Description: This article reports on the activities of an ad-hoc group formed to help generate research on creating models for actuarial purposes.

Description: Presented at May 1996 Spring Meeting. This session offers a retrospective and prospective look at the development of actuarial pricing models and technology tools.

Description: Panelists of this teaching session discuss: [1] policyholder and company behavior and its impact on model and assumptions, [2] model purpose and structure, data collection, and behavior models, and [3] the modeling process, including objectives, considerations, constraints, and validation. Session 10 of the 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this teaching session on liability modeling, the panelists discussed the key aspects of identifying and gathering the data required to construct models, the model building process including objectives and considerations, and the modeling process from the standpoint of policyholder and company behaviors.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The purpose of this session is to enhance understanding of what it means to have an adequate reserve based on cash-flow testing by taking the audience into the world of interest rate models and interest rate model generators.

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this practitioners' forum the participants discussed interest rate scenarios that are used in cash-flow testing, what projection results you look at to determine whether you have a good result or a bad result, the concept of just what is reserve adequacy, and what does it mean to say that reserves are adequate.

Description: This paper explores the flexibility of kernel estimation as a means of nonparametric graduation and relates it to moving-weighted-average graduation. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: This paper reviews the applications of operations research methods in the insurance industry. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: Presented at September 1995 Valuation Actuary Symposium. This sessions talks about financial projections as a management tool and tough issues which may have to be addresses in making such projections.

Description: 1995 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this session panelists discussed how cash-flow testing models can be used to provide significant Asset/Liability Management information, making the transition from cash-flow testing to ALM, definitions of ALM, the key assumptions in ALM, and evaluating results.

Description: 1994 SOA Spring Meeting, Orlando. This session is a discussion and examination of cash-flow testing models, including those developed by the British Working Party, Finnish Working Party, and others.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper entitled 'Pricing Long Term Insurance Contracts.' This paper considers several models describing the changes in the needs of the insured for care over time. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: Easy access computing power is harnessed to approximate ruin probabilities. The dynamics of the traditional insurance model are stated in the form of period to period constraints. This allows the development of a life-table with the survival probabilities for a given set of parameters. Given the spreadsheet approach of the model, sensitivity analysis to study the impact of different parameter values and loss variable distributions can be easily implemented.

Description: 1993 SOA Annual Meeting, New York. This session was about what constitutes a good predictor for modeling. Topics included: 1. Size of model. 2. Lines of business. 3. Purpose. 4. Kinds of models. 5. Accuracy of model versus assumptions. 6. Presentation of results. 7. How to get credibility.

Description: This session from the 1993 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on general modeling issues associated with the completion of the opinion and memorandum required by revisions to the Standard Valuation Law. It concentrates on liability modeling.

Description: This session from the 1993 Valuation Actuary Symposium focuses on problems and solutions observed by consulting firms including cash flow testing, modeling of assets and liabilities, who the valuation actuary relies upon and the software being used for valuation actuary work.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: This paper describes risk-factor-dependent multiple decrements and actuarial cost functions as a general compartment model, a discrete time and discrete state stochastic model of morbidity and mortality processes. For large numbers of risk factors, the model is extended to its natural continuous time and state form. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: This paper presents a unifying non-Bayesian statistical method for incorporating prior information into the determination of probability distributions and other finite measures and develops the statistical properties of this method together with actuarial applications. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: This presentation is a concurrent session from the 1991 Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held April 18-19 in New Orleans. The panel will discuss the approaches and techniques used for pricing and modeling insurance products, including commercial software, internal systems, maintenance issues, staff training, and asset/liability systems. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 17, No. 1.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Option bounds are obtained in a discrete-time framework with transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial option pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs. The method proceeds by constructing the appropriate replicating portfolio at each trading interval. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper develops a theory for the valuation of some kinds of interest sensitive cash flows. A process is derived which takes as input, assumptions about the capital markets and policy holder behaviour, and produces as output interest and decrement assumptions which can be used for conventional actuarial discounting. The methodology is illustrated using some idealized, but tractable, models of conventional non-par whole life insurance. The method is also applied to a simple Universal Life plan. The paper concludes by considering some of the problems encountered when applying the ideas to more practical problems.

Description: This session discussion is about application of actuarial analysis and models to evaluate investment features. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 15, No. 1.

Description: This article discusses the need for a sophisticated modeling system capable of analyzing the impact of the variables present in pension plan projections and providing management with information which it may act upon.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 3, from the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The first instructor discusses three methods of valuation [and methods of studying C-3 risk]: Gross Premium Valuation [the actuary’s traditional approach], Cash Flow Analysis, and Market Value Analysis, also known as ‘Modern Financial Analysis,’ with a focus on the third. Then the second instructor provides an update on C-2 risk [claims, expenses], and combinations of risk, noting that C-2 risk has not had much attention paid to it. He goes on to describe three types of C-2 risk: stochastic deviations, unpredictable single events, and ‘judgment errors, such as poor underwriting. The third instructor focuses on the C-1 [default] risk. Case studies are included.

Description: This teaching session was presented as Session 6B at the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The subject was modeling techniques for use in testing the scenarios being developed by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, ‘CIA,’ Solvency Standards Committee. The presenters, members of the Committee, have been working on developing a generic modeling approach. Their presentation is limited to the first of three phases of proposed CIA standards for solvency reporting dealing with scenario testing, namely the projection of surplus under various prescribed and selected scenarios.

Description: In this paper, chapter III of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors discuss building a liability model to evaluate the C-3 risk. The article discusses the data and assumptions needed, and the importance of sensitivity testing given that the model results are very sensitive to the assumptions used.

Description: 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. This session discussed the implementation of a solvency testing process, associated company considerations, and the ways in which the process might be viewed by other parties.

Description: From the 1986 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Washington DC in October 1986 Examination of the nuts and bolts of cash flow testing analysis.

Description: Presented at October 1985 Annual Meeting. This session focused on three projects funded by the Actuarial Education and Research Fund: risk models, operations research applications for actuaries and probability modeling of losses.

Description: From the 1985 Valuation Actuary Symposium Discussion of the practical application of cash flow testing in the valuation process.

Description: This paper studies the statistical theory underlying minimum surplus required to protect a group insurer from the insurance, or C2, risk. Followed by 2 submitted discussion papers

Description: This session from the 1984 SOA Toronto Meeting discusses a nontechnical introduction to Applied Statistics and Operations Research, practical applications and examples for financial reporting and asset management and an overview of the potential use in actuarial applications of these management tools. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 10, No. 4B

Description: In this paper an algorithm is derived for computing the distribution of aggregate claims for the individual risk theory model. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: An increasing need exists for the actuary to provide ranges and frequency distributions of possible values instead of providing only mean values. This discussion will cover: projections of asset experience under various economic scenarios, a practical application of profit analysis using scenarios and a deterministic model, exploring possible values by means of stochastic modeling, and a description of the new life contingencies textbook's stochastic approach and application to some practical population and census problems. From Record of the Society of Actuaries 1981, Volume 7, No. 4.

Description: In our rapidly changing world, it is becoming hopeless to try to arrive at a satisfying description of future conditions, even in the short run. Yet prices for new life insurance must somehow reflect one’s view of events even in the far distant future. futurism

Description: In this discussion, the panel recalls all of the considerations in the design of the SOFASIM Society OF Actuaries SIMulator. It was obvious from the first model of the life insurance company SOFASIM, as it was named must have an actuarial side as well as an investment side. GAAP and tax aspects of the model are also discussed.

Description: This discussion focuses on actuarial reports to management. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 1, No. 1.

Description: This paper looks at mathematical problems formulated in either explicit or implicit form. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: The actuarial profession is faced with a problem of determining delta-ized reserves on a basis which will include appropriate provision for adverse deviations in mortality, lapses, interest rates, and expense rates. This paper describes briefly a method which could be used to solve this Followed by papers submitted by 2 authors problem in a flexible manner.

Description: In this paper, a mathematical model is constructed to study the deviations of claims, investment performance, operating expenses, and lapse expenses as random stochastic processes. Discussions of the paper submitted by 2 readers follows

Description: Discussion of the diversification activities of a number of life insurance companies. This includes the formation of, or acquisition of, property and casualty insurers, variable annuity companies, mutual fund management companies, banks, finance companies, leasing companies, real estate development companies, televisions and radio stations, newspapers, software consultants and other corporate enterprises. Discussion includes: 1. Activities really compatible with the llfe insurance product. 2. Activities otherwise compatible with corporate objectives or offering potentially large profit centers. 3. Activities which can be an excessive drain on corporate earnings and executive manpower 4. The actuary's role in these diversification activities. Then the discussion goes into a discussion of corporate planning models

Description: The following topics were discussed at concurrent sessions: 1. Personal Security in the 1970's- United States and Canada, 2. Adjusted earnings for life companies, 3. Pension funding, 4. What about these younger actuaries?, 5. Sources of statistical information for actuaries, 6. Variable life insurance, 7. Models and decision techniques, and 8. Role of the actuary in expense control. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1970, Vol 22, Pt. 2, No. 63.

Description: This is a discussion about computer models and simulation tools for life insurance companies. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, No. 59AB

Description: This article promotes the concept of long range planning for life insurance companies and notes that actuaries are well equiped for this activity.

Description: In this article the author presents a general solution to the problem of finding the effective annual interest rate commonly arising in finance for an installment loan.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of the Monte Carlo technique to a practical situation in a company, group term rate making. It included a discussion of some of the problems encountered and the solution to these problems. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper surveys the actuarial techniques connected with salary scale mathematics for the valuation of defined benefit pension plans. Followed by several discussion papers submitted