Description: In this paper the authors analyze data from group medical expense insurance claims and show that many insurance loss distributions have very 'heavy tails' because large losses represent a disproportionate fraction of the total cost. They also present a simple model to reproduce and explain the large loss behavior. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This Fellowship credit research paper describes the use of fuzzy sets applications to the selection of group health risks. In general, fuzzy set theory is implemented to describe collections of objects whose boundaries are not precisely defined, as in the judgment of what constitutes a good risk group. First, single-plan underwriting is considered, then the work is extended to multiple-option plans.

Description: This paper describes risk-factor-dependent multiple decrements and actuarial cost functions as a general compartment model, a discrete time and discrete state stochastic model of morbidity and mortality processes. For large numbers of risk factors, the model is extended to its natural continuous time and state form. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report develops a framework for forecasting cause specific death rates. Included also is a Cause of Deaths Forecasting Tool and a user guide for the tool.

Description: This report outlines the current wellness environment, the objectives of the wellness study and provides a summary of the overall study findings. This report is supplemented by the Research Summary Report, Survey Results, and Interviews with Researchers. This document includes a summary of key findings from each of the three phases.

Description: An introduction to the field of Complexity Science. The report includes an overview of the field’s key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models, review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, a literature review, and a discussion on how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Description: This paper reviews the applications of operations research methods in the insurance industry. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: This paper provides actuaries with background and scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: The attached report presents the results of a survey conducted by the Society of Actuaries Mortality and Underwriting Survey Committee in July of 2008 under the following categories: 1. Modeling Mortality Risk. 2. Use of Reinsurance to Manage Mortality. 3. Retention / Large Case Management. 4. Catastrophe Reinsurance. 5. Mortality Concentration of Risk. 6. Catastrophic Bonds.