Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: A primer on extreme event modeling and mitigation for practitioners, it covers the complete cycle of extreme event risk management, from identifying experience data sources, to extreme event detection, to modeling and dependence analysis, and finally to monitoring and mitigation.

Description: This report aims to help actuaries and other interested parties to define the relative differences in managing risks between the insurance and banking industries. This report guides actuaries and others about change risk management practices to prevent future financial failures. The paper seeks to examine what factors account for the differences in the United States, compared with Canada about the underlying causes and effects of the most recent crisis with financial institutions.

Description: The Committee on Finance Research makes available a research report exploring the mechanics and implementation of economic capital programs for life insurance companies. Discussion items include common methods for calculating economic capital advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: This paper reviews the Value At Risk concept, a financial risk management tool and discusses its application to insurance. Difficulties with this application are described and modifications suggested. An alternative tool, expressed as a risk adjustment to economic value, is suggested as an additional measure.

Description: This report examines the use of a copula approach to build a predictive model to estimate the amount of economic capital a life insurance company needs to protect itself against an adverse movement in interest rates, mortality, and other risk drivers.

Description: This report discusses management decision making practices and the need for actuaries to build the appropriate level of variability for management actions in stochastic models to achieve a more realistic range of future experience among the stochastic scenarios.