Description: This model arose from a project to evaluate the cost of a health care access' program to provide comprehensive medical care to uninsureds in Minnesota, for the Minnesota Health Care Access Commission. The project was to provide estimates of the impact on per-person and aggregate costs for various participation percentages in the access program. In order to evaluate those costs, the antiselection model described in this was developed. Of note, this was the ACTUARIAL EDUCATION AND RESEARCH FUND 1991 PRACTITIONERS AWARD WINNER. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 2.

Description: Abstract from a paper that describes results from a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model which predicts the probability of Non-Acceptable Claim, an unnecessary hospital stay, using hospital discharge claim records as inputs.

Description: This paper proposes a model for the incurred but not reported - IBNR- claims of an insurance company. This model will be fit to third party automobile bodily injury claims for which the months and years of occurrence of the accident are available. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990 VOL. 1

Description: In this paper the authors analyze data from group medical expense insurance claims and show that many insurance loss distributions have very 'heavy tails' because large losses represent a disproportionate fraction of the total cost. They also present a simple model to reproduce and explain the large loss behavior. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: This Fellowship credit research paper describes the use of fuzzy sets applications to the selection of group health risks. In general, fuzzy set theory is implemented to describe collections of objects whose boundaries are not precisely defined, as in the judgment of what constitutes a good risk group. First, single-plan underwriting is considered, then the work is extended to multiple-option plans.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: This 1993 paper examined the premium rate changes that could have resulted from the passage of The Health Insurance Reform and Cost Control Act of 1991. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Discusses the Canadian Institute of Actuaries' disability morbidity study to update the 1964 CDT and explains the techniques used to interpolate incidence rates from the 1964 CDT.

Description: Abstract for a paper that develops links between credibility theory in actuarial science and longitudinal data models in statistics. The paper demonstrates that many additive credibility models can be expressed as special cases of the longitudinal data model.

Description: This paper is concerned with the evaluation of the common portfolio management strategy which consists of delegating to different managers portions of the assets to be invested. This practice is shown to be close to optimal under the realistic assumption that the private signals of the financial experts are positively correlated. This is accomplished by comparing this multi-manager approach to an optimal investment policy derived under full information, within the context of a standard normal returns/exponential utility market timing model.