Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.

Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: The theme of this paper relates to solving portfolio selection problems using linear programming. The authors extend the linear optimization framework for Conditional Value-at-Risk-based portfolio selection problems to optimization over a more general class of risk measure known as the class of Coherent Distortion Risk Measure. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012 Vol. 1.

Description: Authored by a MIB Solutions team of Tom Rhodes, Stuart Klugman, Marianne Purushotham and Stacy Gill, the report summarizes the results of a study on the application and adoption of credibility theory within the life insurance and annuity industry. In addition to the report, numerical examples related to the application of credibility to company mortality and lapse data are provided in the four Excel files. This excel spreadsheet is a numerical example relating to the application of Credibility for lapses by policy for limited fluctuation. Please see the SOA website research section for the full report on Credibility Theory Practices.

Description: This paper is an attempt to examine transmission and incubation period models. Results are used to estimate the risk of HIV+ exposure of an individual company and the resulting reserve needs. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1989, Vol. 41.

Description: This presentation discusses a process for determining the minimum reinsurance retention level consistent with defined parameters. The conclusions reached were: 1. Under PDS dependence, optimal reinsurance strategy is multivariate stop loss form. 2. Explicit solutions could be derived in certain bivariate model. 3. Binding and unbinding constraints are equivalent. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This is a presentation on computing tight bounds for insurance payments with nonlinear risk. Semi-definite Programming is defined, some examples are presented, and non-linear applications are presented. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol.1.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Two-dimensional data can be smoothed by minimizing a combination of the sum of weighted absolute deviations from initial estimates and the sums of absolute values of differences in the two directions. This paper discusses the techniques of parametric programming which make it feasible to explore the different results obtained by varying the emphasis given to fit versus smoothness. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.