Description: The paper argues that Risks Evaluation at its core is a psychological process that can lead to the special type of chaos described in modern Chaos Theory. It will argue that quantification and scientific modeling does not exempt risk assessment from the potential for deep biases. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: This paper examines the history and current problems of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation PBGC. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This paper examines the funding expectations of the three primary stakeholders in the pension system: plan sponsors, taxpayers, and workers. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: The investment risk generated by a stochastic interest rate is recognized as often the greatest risk associated with a whole life or retirement policy. Recent research has investigated the mathematics of this risk when the interest rate follows a stochastic process and the time to death is considered to be random. In this paper we focus on the use of the zero coupon bond as an investment instrument to fund a whole life policy. It is unlikely that a company will entirely fund a particular single policy with a zero coupon bond.

Description: Discussion of Human capital and its implicit asset and liability cash flows how insurance companies could help measure and provide products to help match up the timing of those cash flows. From Asset-Liability Integration, M-FI02-1.

Description: Management's goal is to continuously optimize the economic value of the firm, subject to regulatory constraints, with the use of financial valuation of the firm’s balance sheet. Both the assets and liabilities can be perceived as derivative securities. This chapter discusses a variety of financial economics issues with this common theme. From Asset-Liability Integration, M-FI02-1.

Description: In this paper, we introduce a family of leptokurtic symmetric distributions represented by the difference of two gamma variates. Properties of this family are discussed. The Laplace, sums of Laplace and normal distributions all arise as special cases of this family. We propose a two-step method for fitting data to this family. We develop a statistical test for goodness-of-fit and introduce a test of normality of the data. A simulation study is provided to illustrate the theory.

Description: The aim of this work is the definition of a holistic approach to assess the maturity level of ERM within an organization, following the principles defined by The Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission 2004b in the “Enterprise Risk Management—Integrated Framework.”

Description: This paper discusses both the theoretical and the application aspects of stress testing in managing enterprise risks. Effective stress testing maximizes the risk adjusted enterprise profit by controlling major risks financial, strategic, operational and hazard upon identifying risk metrics and modeling the correlations. A case study is included for demonstration purposes.