Description: This paper presents a model of the progression of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome [AIDS] epidemic in the United States. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1989, Vol. 41.

Description: This paper reviews recursive formulas for aggregate claim distributions. Followed by a submitted discussion paper

Description: This paper considers the distribution of aggregate claims of an insurer. The general form of the distribution is considered initially, and, after a few mild restrictions are imposed, it is characterized as being a compound distribution. Followed by one submitted discussion paper.

Description: In this paper, the coefficients of the minimum-Rz moving-weighted-average formulas are derived using matrix algebra and the method of Lagrange multipliers. Reviewer's note: This mathematics can be useful in the graduation process of mortality and morbidity table construction

Description: The objectives of this paper are: 1. To show why scientific laws of mortality are preferable to the continued use of graduation techniques on mortality tables. 2. To develop a new theory leading to a new mathematical law of mortality that reduces to Gompertz's law as a first approximation. 3. To demonstrate an understanding of select mortality and produce a simple formula that is reasonably consistent with it. 4. To develop methods to test this and other similar formulas on various bodies of data to establish their validity and usefulness. 5. To discuss the meaning of the results and provide some examples of the use of the formula for purposes other than graduation. 6. To discuss extensions of the models. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1980, Vol. 32.

Description: In this paper two theorems concerning the optimality of the perfect-fit and perfect-smoothness graduations are proved. Two examples are presented and some difficulties with regard to computational feasibility are reviewed. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1978, Vol. 30.

Description: A presentation of a mathematics/statistics based approach for determining credibility factors for possible use in group health insurance premium rate setting and experience refund setting. Includes supporting mathematical proofs of approach. Followed by discussions submitted by several people

Description: This is a discussion about computer models and simulation tools for life insurance companies. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, No. 59AB

Description: The actuarial profession is faced with a problem of determining delta-ized reserves on a basis which will include appropriate provision for adverse deviations in mortality, lapses, interest rates, and expense rates. This paper describes briefly a method which could be used to solve this Followed by papers submitted by 2 authors problem in a flexible manner.

Description: This paper is concerned with the determination of credibility factors applicable to the estimation of the true claim level of a particular risk, based on both the actual observed claim experience of that risk and the expected claim level that would be predicted for the risk according to its exposure characteristics. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, Pt. 1, No. 59 AB.