Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: This paper presents a proof using the general mean value theorem that under specified conditions, the insurance premium for complete protection against a specified loss will decrease with increasing wealth. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 1.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explore the rationale underlying the development of the family of linear compound graduation formulas. As the title suggests, this paper also attempts to defend the Min-Ro member of that family against the unqualified charge that it is a 'poor' graduation method. It concludes with a description of a simple modification of the Min-Ro, and an analysis of the improvement obtained by that modification.

Description: Abstract for a paper that develops links between credibility theory in actuarial science and longitudinal data models in statistics. The paper demonstrates that many additive credibility models can be expressed as special cases of the longitudinal data model.

Description: Discusses a method for division of workload in a consulting firm in a way which will minimize cost.

Description: Australia has conducted ten national censuses since World War II: in 1947, 1954, 1961 and at five-year intervals through 1996. Life tables have been prepared in connection with each of these censuses except the most recent one, for which data is still being collected.

Description: This paper examines the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds. Catastrophe risk cannot be hedged by traditional securities. Therefore the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds requires an incomplete markets setting and this creates special difficulties in the pricing methodology. The paper briefly discusses the theory of equilibrium pricing and its relationship to the standard arbitrage-free valuation framework. Equilibrium pricing theory is used to develop a pricing method based on a model of the term structure of interest rates and a probability structure for the catastrophe risk. This pricing methodology can be used to assess the default spread on catastrophe risk bonds relative to traditional defaultable securities.

Description: Describes purpose of ARCH and editorial policy.

Description: Forty-one years of catastrophe loss data by state are used in this study to produce a model for rating catastrophe covers for insurers in any region of the Continental United States. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper explores the use of linear programming as a tool to guide policyholders in getting the most value out of their combined insurance and investment programs. Concentrating on flexible premium universal life within the tax environment of the United States, several linear programming models are developed that can be used at the point of sale, to select the most cost effective policy from those available in the marketplace, and after issue to maximize the present value of future cash flows on the policy of an insured who is in ill-health. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 3.