Description: During the past few years, performance, cost, and risk trends for Medigap products have undergone substantial changes. Some of these trends could ease cost pressures on Medigap insurers, while others might increase them. Part 1 of this Issue Brief article discusses current changing trends and considerations around about how they are impacting Medigap.

Description: Adding value in the development, production and marketing process of medical devises regulatory environment, designer/manufacturer perspective, product failure and litigation risk. Issue No. 44.

Description: The coming wave of biosimilars could have a major impact on prescription drug spend in coming years. The big event of Humira biosimilar launches in 2023 will be significant in determining that ultimate impact. Payers are making coverage decisions. The more biosimilars are utilized, the greater the potential savings. How will biosimilar adoption be maximized?

Description: The impact of Medicare on retiree medical. Issue No. 44.

Description: The big event of 2023 is the launch of multiple Humira biosimilars, which began in January with the arrival of Amgen’s Amjevita on the market. The launch of Amjevita kicks off the process of changing the specialty drug marketplace in the United States. The expectation of the full impact of this big event is very hopeful, but there is still uncertainty several months after its beginning. Humira is the highest-selling drug in the world and has been since 2013 (Figure 1)—except for when COVID-19 projects temporarily surpassed it. The world is eagerly awaiting the launch of multiple biosimilar drugs to compete with Humira and hopefully bring more competitive pricing to the benefit of payers and patients everywhere.

Description: Calculation of IBNR Reserves compares IBNP lag method to Incurred Claims PMPM method which produces lower Variance. Issue No. 46.

Description: This article summarizes what is new with the Academy health practice council. Issue No. 59

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.

Description: The letter from the editor thanks all of the authors for their contributions and gives a very quick synopsis of what will be appearing in the June issue.

Description: Article discussing how the pursuit of value-based care as a consequence of health care reform laws such as the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the Medicare Modernization Act has accelerated the use of risk adjustment and what it means to actuaries.