Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: How do unpredictable short-term mortality shocks due to the Coronavirus impact assumptions for pension valuations? What impact does this have in reviewing a plan's experience and can an actuary justify making adjustments? What portions of the population were most impacted by COVID-19? Find out all this and more during this discussion. This webcast will cover: Current research relating to COVID-19 mortality statistics The MP-2020 improvement scale and the MIM-2021 framework Perspectives on emerging longevity trends

Description: "Minimum Social Security Benefit (s) and the Alone Stage of Retirement in the U.S.? – Lori J. Curtis, PhD., Douglas Andrews, FSA, FCIA, Ph.D., University of Waterloo The Importance of Cognitive Health – Gordon Woo,Ph.D., RMS LifeRisks"

Description: "How long is long in longevity? – Jesús-Adrian Álvarez, Ph.D. - Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Fund (ATP), The Rate of Aging in humans is constant. New evidence – Marcus Ebeling, PhD., Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Department of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany; Roland Rau, Ph.D., Professor, Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Håkan Malmström, Ph.D., C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karen Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden Human Lifetimes: Finite But Not Necessarily Bounded – Fei Huang, PhD., School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney; Ross Maller, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Xu Ning, Ph.D., Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, Australian National University, Brandon Milholland, Ph.D., IQVIA Plymouth Meeting, PA."

Description: Replacement rates have historically been a tool to determine the adequacy of retirement income to maintain an individual’s standard of living. Numerous conceptual and methodological issues lie, however, beneath its simple exterior. The purpose of this paper is to examine these underlying issues for the benefit of retirement security stakeholders, pension plan sponsors, advisors, financial product providers, and individuals planning for retirement.

Description: This webcast provides an overview of the key provisions of the recently enacted SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022, which significantly changed the rules that apply to qualified retirement plans and IRAs. The presenters will examine a history of the legislation and focus on some of the key provisions of the Act. In particular, we will discuss provisions that give individuals more flexibility on how they will contribute to their retirement accounts and provisions that provide new ways for individuals to save. Explore certain significant structural changes to the rules such as the automatic enrollment for new plans and the elimination of lifetime RMDs for designated Roth accounts. The panel will also focus on the provisions that provide greater access to retirement funds through new distribution exceptions and how this might affect a company’s reporting obligations. Come learn about some of the relief provisions included in SECURE 2.0, including an expanded EPCRS program to cover errors relating to IRAs. In addition to a discussion about the key provisions, the panel will review steps companies should be taking to implement the SECURE 2.0 provisions, including timelines for amending documents and systems. Identify certain issues for which guidance or technical corrections is likely needed, such as clarification on the required beginning date age.

Description: "Driving Longevity Through Educational Attainment – Robert L. Brown – Ph. D. Higher Age U.S. Mortality By Education and Cause of Death Trends, Inequality and Controllable Risk Factors – Andrew J. G. Cairns – MPA Ph.D., Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, Cristian Redondo Lour´es, Ph.D., Actuarial Solutions,"

Description: Retirement income can be provided by Social Security, employer-provided pension plans, personal savings and family support. With the growth of Social Security and employer-provided pensions, and the decline in birth rates and marriage rates, the role of families in the U.S. retirement system has declined.

Description: Retirement Industry Conference