Description: Retirees and their advisors should construct diversified portfolios of retirement income, allocating among various retirement income classes that include Social Security, annuities, and systematic withdrawals from invested assets. This essay discusses the pros and cons of various retirement income generators and the issues with constructing retirement income portfolios.

Description: The abstract for a paper that focuses on default distributions and why they are important.

Description: This paper suggests that individual decisions to retire are based on personal resource allocations, institutional influences, and social standards. The paper then attempts to create a decision-making framework in which to accommodate this range of influences. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: A review of the book "The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty" by Dan Ariely. The book is about lying, cheating, stealing, and shaving the truth -- something done by everybody, but the factors influencing this can be a bit surprising.

Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: Review of the address given by Richard H. Thaler, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago at the Investment Section at the Society of Actuaries meeting in New York on October 20.

Description: This report presents the results of six focus groups with retirees who have at least $100,000 of investable assets and must depend on that money to maintain their lifestyles because they do not have sufficient amounts of annuitized income from Social Security and defined benefit plans to meet all of their expenses. The purpose of the focus groups was to gain an understanding of how current retirees approach key financial decisions about managing their money in retirement. The benefits of this qualitative study are multidisciplinary. It can help: 1. actuaries design better retirement financial systems, 2. the financial services industry understand areas of misperception and causes of poor management, and 3. provide policy-makers an understanding of how to drive public policy goals.

Description: The second of a three-part series introducing the technique of visioning. Part I appeared in the June 1996 issue of Actuarial Futures.

Description: Summary of the July, 2013 newsletter with an executive overview of each article.