Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: These are the discussant comments for the concurrent session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Concurrent Session 2A: Drivers of Future Mortality for the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: The is the informal discussion transcript from Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: We employ a framework for the classification of mortality evolution patterns to HMD data. We find both supra-regional patterns and outliers from global trends.

Description: Mortality in the U.S. states at ages 80 and older and over years 1959–2011 analyzed and compared with mortality levels in 13 high-longevity countries.

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: These are the discussant comments for the concurrent Session 2B: Older-Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.