Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: This article examines the impact of a changing smoking rate on population-level mortality improvement and the importance of taking this driver into account.

Description: Effective risk management of a portfolio demands accurate and succinct models which explain the main risk factors. We look at the various requirements we demand of a model, and find that they can all be met with an import from medical statistics: survival models.

Description: In an increasing population the number of persons falls off from age to age more rapidly than does the stationary population of the life table. This can introduce a systematic bias into life table calculations. The first part of the paper describes an iterative procedure to correct for the bias, extends the method to multiple decrement and associated single decrement life tables, and demonstrates the magnitude of the bias involved. The second part of the paper summarizes the results of applying iterative life table techniques to 165 populations which encompass over a century's experience and include countries from all parts of the world. Followed by discussions submitted by several people

Description: View the complete issue for the August 2014 Reinsurance News newsletter.

Description: a review of a paper by R. H. Daw, F.I.A. entitled “Smallpox and the Double Decrement Table: a piece of actuarial prehistory.”