Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Presented at October 1985 Annual Meeting. This session discusses a study by the Center for Futures Research 'CFR' at the University of California and possible users of CFR and similar studies in the strategic planning process.

Description: The Study was designed to elicit reasons behind the participants’ judgments about the future course of the four variables. In the first round participants were asked to provide judgments about the value of the four variables in 2024 and the reasons behind their judgments. The four variables were 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa yield. In addition, they were asked to list future developments that could cause historical trends in the variables to change. Finally they were asked to express their views on how the judgmental process employed in this study might influence the use and interpretation of traditional actuarial e.g., stochastic, deterministic estimation processes or to aid in planning. The data were collated between rounds and in the second Round, the responses of the group were provided to the participants.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: Appendix G is the listing of participants from the Delphi Report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report and all of the appendices.

Description: Responds to questions received during the webcast with regards to modeling long term medical trends for valuation purposes. Questions cover testing the model against publicly traded companies, the calculation of growth rate in the model, the income multiplier as the population ages, model relevance to Canada, factoring in of extra disease burdens, exclusion of aging in the model, and the effect of the globalization of health care.

Description: A research report that examines modeling of cash flow associated within a pool of mortgages and specifically focusing on the effectiveness of infusing a limited amount of capital into the pool.