Description: How do you make model output media worthy? This article explores considerations that may contribute to the mass production of model results for public consumption.

Description: This article discusses the advantages, logistical concerns, and pricing formulas of implementing a TNHP, in which members pay less for treatment from providers who meet higher quality and cost-effectiveness standards.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the considerations and advantages of implementing an integrated enterprise risk management program for a health insurance company, and presents a summary of Aetna's experience with ERM as a case study.

Description: The article and guidebook of the same name use a stochastic simulation model to examine potential impacts of public pension plan risk-sharing policies on government employers and plan members. Policies examined include simple policies such as COLAs and employee contributions that are contingent upon investment returns or funded ratios, and more-complex policies similar to those used in the Wisconsin Retirement System.

Description: The following case study walks through the steps of a predictive modeling exercise to illustrate one way analytics can streamline the underwriting paradigm.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a high level summary of the paper “Variance of the CTE Estimator” by B. John Manistre and Geoffrey H. Hancock that appeared in the North American Actuarial Journal in 2005. The authors also expanded on some of the results.

Description: Commentary on practical observations resulting from constructing and running Economic Capital models. Possible standardization of assumptions and result interpretation are morphing even though use of E.C. models has now been around for years.

Description: The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic have impacted many actuaries’ work since the spring of 2020. This article addresses three considerations actuaries should account for when using risk evaluation models which are focused on projecting remote, highly unlikely losses: model effectiveness, asset risk, and insurance (mortality and mortality) risk.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.