Description: This report examines the use of a copula approach to build a predictive model to estimate the amount of economic capital a life insurance company needs to protect itself against an adverse movement in interest rates, mortality, and other risk drivers.

Description: The Chinese insurance market is grappling with product innovation, business growth and regulatory oversight as it tries to keep pace with a sharp growth in demand across product segments. In this context, the authors have highlighted insurance trends in China, based on available research and literature, with a particular focus on topics that will drive the enterprise risk management (ERM) function of insurance companies. ERM provides an opportunity for insurers to identify and mitigate potential insurance risks by enhancing their policies and risk management activities. This report explores the insurance trends in detail, drawing on findings from interviews of practitioners in the Chinese market, to provide context for the drivers of ERM transformation.

Description: A primer on extreme event modeling and mitigation for practitioners, it covers the complete cycle of extreme event risk management, from identifying experience data sources, to extreme event detection, to modeling and dependence analysis, and finally to monitoring and mitigation.

Description: This paper employs the theory of real option pricing to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, it develops a two-stage model to help firms determine the optimal triggers in the event of an influenza pandemic. The first stage proposes a regime-dependent epidemic model to simulate the spread of the virus, depending on whether the firm is active or inactive. The second stage views the reactivation decision as a call option and the suspension decision as a put option, and uses dynamic programming method to determine the optimal switching thresholds.

Description: Actuaries and other managers of risk identify factors in modeling insurance risks because [i] they feel that these factors may cause the outcome of a risk, or [ii] that the factors can be managed, thus allowing analysts a degree of control over the system risk. The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for quantifying the relative importance of a source of risk. The intent is that, with a quantitative measure of relative importance, risk managers will be able to sharpen their intuition about the relative importance of risks and be better custodians of financial security systems. This paper proposes a measure of relative importance that has its roots in both the statistics and economics literatures. The measure is intuitively appealing when assessing the effectiveness of basic risk management techniques including risk exchange, pooling and financial risk management. The risk measure is also shown to be useful in multivariate situations where several factors affect a risk simultaneously. The paper illustrates this usefulness by considering a pool of policies that is subject to mortality, the risk of a disaster that is common to all policies, and to a common investment environment.

Description: This report presents the major findings from the eleventh annual Emerging Risks survey.

Description: This paper presents the probabilistic concepts underlying measurement of asset adequacy in a simplified way. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: This paper presents a method of testing second-order stochastic dominance of risks. This methodology allows risks to be partially ordered by value with available data - requiring only that the risks have yields distributed as one of the location-scale family of distributions and that the actuary can specify that family.

Description: This paper presents a model designed to help actuaries analyze and quantify C3 risk, which is the risk of loss due to changes in interest rates or the shape of the yield curve.

Description: Analysis tool associated with the research report that models the impact on the U.S. insurance market resulting from a post-Brexit economy in the UK. keywords: European Union;Brexit;Insurance industry