Description: Important tools used in property & casualty P&C insurance—predictive modeling and data mining—can be applied to more effectively model policyholder behavior risks in variable annuity VA contracts. In this article, a case study is used to demonstrate how a predictive modeling approach can improve upon traditional methods used to model VA lapse behavior.

Description: The article discusses modeling of variable annuity behavior risk, with a particular focus on how interaction between different behavioral assumptions complicates modeling. The article gives a brief overview of variable annuity behavior risk, discusses the challenges that behavioral interactions pose for VA modeling, and discusses three potential solutions for dealing with this complexity.