Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: This article discusses data mining and the statistics of coincidence, and provides “guidelines for backtesting integrity” to help ensure results have value beyond mere coincidence. Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of the Horizon, a publication of BARRA, Inc., and is reprinted with permission.

Description: There are two main techniques for evaluating the financial impact of interest rate movements on insurance companies: duration measures and computer simulations. In many ways these approaches provide complementary viewpoints.

Description: Are Your Scenarios on Target?From Risks and Rewards Newsletter, August 2005, Issue No. 47. Actuaries are faced with the dilemma of how to incorporate advances in insurance products and modeling technology into their work. Increasingly, this means looking at a large number of potential outcomes using stochastic simulations.

Description: This article discusses facts and issues related to the selection of a stock’s price distribution.

Description: “It’s interesting to note that, given the past year’s reversal of fortunes in the stock markets, all the media rap about heated inquiries around back-dating options has stopped.”

Description: The article discusses that drawbacks of the HJM Heath-Jarrow-Morton class of stochastic interest models and suggests the use of the Longstaff-Schwartz string model. It describes the use and benefits of the Lonstaff-Schwartz string model.

Description: In this article about interest rate models, the author develops an empirical description of the term “interest rate regime,” and looks at the relationship between changes in yield curves and moving to a new interest rate regime.

Description: As stochastic modeling has evolved, it has divided down two paths—real-world and risk-neutral. This article discusses this division and shows how these paths may be re-united through the use of deflators.

Description: This article focuses on one fundamental modeling assumption — the choice of a benchmark rate or risk-free rate. The author looks at this bond market assumption as a case study of how one needs to monitor fundamental market changes for their impact on assumptions.