Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This is a discussion forum covering 2 papers on economic trends and life insurance in 1953. Dr.Simon Kuznets presented a paper entitled Notes on Prospects of Economic Growth in the United States. His paper was directed to two main questions, a What are the prospects for the nation's future economic growth? b What is likely to be the long-term trend in the general price levels during the next two or three decades? The subject of Dr. Raymond W. Goldsmith's paper was The Supply of Savings and the Level of Interest RatesRetrospect and Outlook.

Description: Discussion of inflation, the real rates of interest and the forecasting of both.

Description: This is a discussion of indexed coverages for individual contracts. It covers such topics as the history of indexed coverage in the U.S. and Canada and other countries and the possibilities for the ideal fully-indexed permanent life insurance and disability income plans.

Description: Chronically low interest rates are a reflection of macroeconomic trends. Care must be exercised in making assumptions regarding mean reversion.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: Latin America has acquired an economically strategic importance in the process of globalization that it did not have a decade ago. The region has attracted significant attention and investment by the international insurance industry. This article explores some issues related to the growth in supply of insurance companies capacity, the relatively slower pace of growth in consumer demand for their products, and the factors that companies can identify in forming their strategies to achieve their objectives.

Description: Overview on current trends in medical practice impacting the LTC insurance business with a focus on dementia, risk stratification, and predictive modeling.

Description: Argues renewable energy will displace fossil fuels, leading to investment opportunities and risks