Description: The Society of Actuaries has developed and released a health care forecast model to illustrate the potential impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on insurance plan health care costs in the United States. Users of the model may include insurance company actuaries seeking an additional reference point for 2021 cost development, regulatory actuaries seeking additional insights and validation of costs as part of rating submissions for 2021, and insurance purchasers seeking a deeper understanding of the forces driving 2021 health care costs and premiums. The model is not intended as a replacement for existing modeling tools developed by insurers or regulators. Rather, the model’s primary purpose is to illustrate the key outbreak-related forces that are affecting the trajectory of health care costs. In addition the model can provide a common reference point to facilitate dialogue with respect to the regulatory review of 2021 health insurance rate filings.

Description: The paper traces the history of government-sponsored hospital and medical care schemes from their beginnings in the Prairie Provinces prior to World War I to the present day. Particular attention is paid to the Health Charter for Canadians. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1982, Vol. 34.

Description: This paper addresses specific details of measurement principles and practice that the actuary should consider when planning to conduct or review a study of care management interventions. Three major topics are covered: Measurement Principles, Study Design Issues, and Risk Factors. Paper 2 of an 8 paper series on 'An Introduction to Care Management Interventions and Their Implications for Actuaries'

Description: The following report is the first iteration of a project to illustrate international models of health care funding.

Description: This report pulls together various findings on long-term care research from the 2017 Risks and Process in Retirement Survey as well as other SOA research.

Description: Accurate forecasts of future health care expenditures for cohorts of elderly individuals can be especially difficult. Current techniques use average per capita costs, based on local experience, adjusted for the cohort's age, sex, institutionalization, and welfare status distribution. This paper presents a method to adjust such per capita cost estimates to reflect more accurately the likely health status of a particular cohort. The adjustment uses the cause-of-mortality profile in the local population, which is a readily available tabulation known to be highly correlated with a major proportion of total medical care expenditures for people beyond age 65. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1984, Vol. 36.

Description: This paper develops a parametric model for health care insurance claims to fit parametric models to the data. Model selection is based on the ChJ-squared goodness-of-fit test and a comparison of the empirical limited expected value function to parametric limited expected value functions. A copula function was used to model the bivariate portion of the data. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This is the sixth Intercompany Study of Long–Term Care Insurance. This report combines and analyzes data received from 35 insurers. Available data was collected on policies issued between January 1, 1984 and December 31, 2007. Claims incurred on policies during this same timeframe were followed from claim inception through the earlier of claim termination or June 30, 2008.

Description: This paper develops a parametric model for health care insurance claims using currently available software to fit parametric models to the data. Model selection is based on the Chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and a comparison of the empirical limited expected value function to parametric limited expected value functions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This report estimates sex-specific trends in HIPAA ADL disability between 1984 and 2004 using the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS); estimates age-standardized 20-year changes in ADL and cognitive impairment (CI) among the U.S. elderly using the HIPAA CI trigger; estimates the joint distribution of cognitive impairment (CI) and ADL disability among aged Medicare enrollees using the HIPAA disability triggers.