Description: This is the SOA website page displaying the table of contents for Risk Management: The Current Financial Crisis, Lessons Learned and Future Implications series of essays.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: GDP growth has slowed as numerous headwinds have emerged. This article summarizes a research paper by Mark Alberts and Max Rudolph that addresses reasons why this is so and how risk managers can address using scenarios.

Description: This session will present results of the most recent SOA/LIMRA studies of variable and fixed-indexed annuity policyholder behavior including withdrawal behavior, guaranteed living benefit elections and surrender activity. Conducted annually since 2006, a discussion on the results of these studies show how they have changed over time, as well as areas where the analysis will need to change or expand. After that, the presenters will focus on dynamic lapse for hot money businesses, which is an important topic for fixed deferred annuity. Key takeaways from this area will include an understanding how to differentiate between hot money and warm money, the different formulas used in the industry, and how to adjust an asset portfolio to protect against the risks associated with hot money businesses.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report includes a section of Key Statistics. On July 24, 2020, the SOA released a report showing updates through July 22 to selected graphs from or related to the Key Statistics section of the comprehensive report. This report provides similar updates through August 9, 2020.

Description: Many drugs, like the immunologic drugs used to treat inflammatory and oncologic conditions, are FDA-authorized to treat more than one condition. Given different conditions have varying clinical outcomes and costs, it is likely the same drug provides a range of value across multiple conditions. However, such drugs have traditionally had a single list price and corresponding payer net cost. Indication-based pricing and benefit design (IBPBD) is intended to address the variable clinical and economic value for the same drug across multiple treatment indications. As this trend continues to evolve, the determination of drug value by treatment indication will create risks and/or opportunities in pharmacy benefit design, ultimately impacting pharmacy PMPM forecasting and incurred costs. Learn from faculty as they: Provide the business context for IBPBD. Describe varying structural approaches. Discuss the market conditions that can motivate or demotivate payers. Explore operational barriers. Recommend a role for actuaries. To bring the discussion to life, a case study will be reviewed. By attending the session, you will be able to: • Describe the meaning of Indication-Based Drug Pricing and Benefit Design (IDPBD). • Understand the risks and opportunities with IBPBD. • Articulate the advantages and disadvantages of distinguishing the value of a drug by treatment indications.

Description: Discuss a comparison of the U.S. general and insured population mortality experience and how COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 excess deaths impacted the populations differently. Discover the population mortality experience in the UK with a focus on the recent emergence of excess deaths for non-COVID causes. The long-term implications on the insured population will also be explored. Wrap up with a discussion of different conditions of long COVID, including organ impairments.

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.