Description: This session will review limited fluctuation credibility, and how to apply that approach to a GLM. Alternative credibility approaches through the lens of ASOP 25 will also be discussed.

Description: This session will cover clustering techniques generally (k-means, hierarchical), and how k-means have been used to segment policyholders using third party features such as credit scores to assess customer profitability.

Description: Feature article discussing the usefulness of Lorenz and Lift curves.

Description: Chairperson's column for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism.

Description: The predictive analytics application growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been gaining momentum.

Description: This is the strong message to encourage all actuaries in the world, who are struggling against low/zero/negative interest rate. Japanese actuaries have been struggling with low/zero/negative interest rate since 1995. There are experiences in asset management, product revision, pricing strategy, and capital management that can be applicable to other countries.

Description: Often actuarial practitioners are faced with working with data that is less than ideal. The data may be observed with gaps in it, a model may suggest variables that are observed at different frequencies, and sometimes predictive analytic results are very fragile to the inclusion or omission of just a few observations in the sample. Data, particularly big data, are often "messy" and something must be done about it. What is the actuary to do about these very practical matters? These types of questions are what this presentation is intended to address. Concerns on missing data, outliers, nonlinearity, mixed-frequency, cross-correlations are illustrated using real datasets in the Asia-Pacific countries. Some possible solutions to the messy data problems will be discussed.

Description: The presenters will share information about: -Insights into causes of death through the use of predictive models, based on a reinsured U.S. life portfolio, using logistic regression models to understand three main causes of death: cancer, heart and external causes; -Opioid abuse is a widespread phenomenon with drug-related mortality rates rising steeply in the U.S. over the past two decades. But what does the most recent data tell U.S. about the outlook for Opioid-related mortality?; -'Deaths of despair' have been publicized as a cause for the poor performance of U.S. mortality in recent years. The presenters will be looking at the different causes under this label, their evolution and explore the drivers behind them.

Description: A review of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization courses with special emphasis on how they may be useful to actuaries.

Description: An autobiographical journey from actuarial student to data scientist.