Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 9A: ASOP 56 - Modeling Begins in the Middle: Don't Forget the Beginning and the End 9.1.21 Recording

Description: In this webcast, presenters will outline the key content in ERM ASOPs 46, 47 and 55 and explore the impact each ASOP has on practitioners working in these fields. We will also describe the revision work currently under way in the ERM Committee of the Actuarial Standards Board.

Description: Back in the day, when data was scarce and computers were slow, actuaries were forced to use simple methods to account for risk. By far, the most common method was to add a margin, usually 5% to a “best estimate” calculation. Remarkedly, this method still works quite well in the aggregate. The problem is that, in many cases, decisions today require a more in-depth analysis. For example, how big a risk is a health plan really taking if it lowers its premiums by 10% to attract more members? This session will discuss techniques for measuring risk in today’s environment. Speakers will also share the results from the 5/50 research project, which forms the foundation for the techniques.

Description: This report provides a toolkit for actuaries and other interested parties to model and forecast mortality by cause and socioeconomic factors.

Description: COVID19 highlights the need for greater complexity expertise in risk management. Crisis like the current COVID19 pandemic and 2008 Financial meltdown and others help us to turn into focus inwards for introspection on how we can better manage our resources and provide a deeper understanding of what our objectives should be and how we can achieve them through applying complexity science.