Description: This paper presents a general law of mortality that is equal to a mixture of Gompertz, Weibull, Inverse-Gompertz, and Inverse-Weibull survival functions.

Description: Summary of all issue articles, with theme of recognizing limits of classical actuarial methods.

Description: The July 2013 issue of the SOA’s Forecasting & Futurism section’s newsletter, Forecasting & Futurism.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Our lecturer presents findings from a research project relating to the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross model of interest rates, including an effective way of pricing general interest rate derivatives and pricing bonds.

Description: A discussion on how to avoid bias when choosing research topics.

Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author discusses the advantages to management of preparing estimates of annual earnings early in the year, for planning and budgeting, deciding on changes to dividend scales, estimating earnings from interest, mortality, and expenses against expected, etc. The author lays out his method of forecasting based on gains and losses by source of earnings, using readily available data including various annual statement exhibits. The author notes that judgment is important as well as statistical analysis in making reasonable forecasts.