Description: This is authors' Fellowship Credit Research Paper. This paper will develop a model for cash flow testing traditional participating insurance that utilizes pricing tools and assumptions to project reserve liabilities. The model makes use of finance and accounting tools to monitor the reasonableness of ending and intermediate surplus results that emerge under the various interest rate scenarios imposed.

Description: During the last decade, a vast activity had been observed in generalizing of the classical discrete distributions. The main idea was to apply the extended versions fur modeling different kinds of dependent count or frequency data structure in various fields. In the present paper we suggest extensions of the classical univariate geometric, negative binomial, Poisson, Bernoulli, binomial and logarithmic series distributions, by including an additional parameter. It has a natural interpretation in terms of zero-inflation, and because of this we named the corresponding generalized versions adding inflated-parameter.

Description: This paper builds a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality. A modified Jarrow, Lando and Turnball model [Markov Chain model] is used to model the credit rating. Recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time are derived. Coupled Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin are also obtained. Some numerical results are included.

Description: Statistical properties of interest, annuity and insurance functions are examined when mortality and interest are treated as having a random component. Several special models of interest rate fluctuation are examined in detail. It is hoped that such theory will be useful in developing fluctuation reserves and premium margins. Presented at the 13th Annual Actuarial Research Conference, Ball State University, August 31st. September lst, 2nd. 1978.

Description: Results of an industry survey on life insurance companies' efforts to implement the recently adopted Life Risk-Based Capital Phase II Instructions, which include new requirements for variable annuity contracts. Adopted by the NAIC on October 14, 2005, the new requirements are effective for year-end 2005. Also discusses a summary of the requirements set forth in the instructions.

Description: Discussion of Capital Market Modeling techniques

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2004, Vol. 1.

Description: This work investigates the use of a statistical approach to calculate the incurred but not reported IBNR reserve directly. This allows for the reserve to be estimated in one step, without completion factors, and it provides a confidence interval around the estimate of IBNR as well.

Description: Presentation from the 41st Actuarial Research Conference with the main topic of analyzing the life insurance industry.

Description: The behavior of extreme paths in the usual stochastic interest rate models is not nearly so plausible as the behavior of their expected values and variances. This paper proposes a new class of models that deliver more plausible extreme paths while preserving the usual expected value and variance behavior. Along the way we derive the closed form solution for the traditional mean-reverting lognormal process, including the drift compensation.