Description: The Society of Actuaries Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is pleased to release this report examining how well people estimate their own life expectancy.

Description: This paper examines past mortality trends and discusses how these trends may change over the next 75 years, thus influencing the growth of the elderly population. In addition, this paper describes the methods and assumptions used to project future mortality rates and presents results, including assumed annual rates of mortality reduction and projected life expectancies. As well, this paper discusses stochastic time-series methods that are used to help quantify the variability in the mortality rate projections.

Description: "How long is long in longevity? – Jesús-Adrian Álvarez, Ph.D. - Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Fund (ATP), The Rate of Aging in humans is constant. New evidence – Marcus Ebeling, PhD., Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Department of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany; Roland Rau, Ph.D., Professor, Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Håkan Malmström, Ph.D., C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karen Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden Human Lifetimes: Finite But Not Necessarily Bounded – Fei Huang, PhD., School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney; Ross Maller, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Xu Ning, Ph.D., Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, Australian National University, Brandon Milholland, Ph.D., IQVIA Plymouth Meeting, PA."

Description: This is an update of a report published originally in June 20211 comparing total U.S. population mortality to baseline expectations by age and sex. The report now includes U.S. population numbers through August 17, 2022, so the years 2020 and 2021 are now mostly complete.

Description: The Society of Actuaries has developed this report to provide insights on the historical levels and emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The most recently released U.S. population mortality experience from 2017 has been incorporated and added to prior available data to enable analysis of mortality experience over the period 1999-2017. This research is part of its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives.

Description: This article describes one of the keys to successful marketing in the current environment - build a relational database that will help the agent communicate with a client in an organized way, so that we can educate, inform, present choices and help these clients navigate their financial future. This article provides the elements of such a database.

Description: Charts for An Extreme Value Analysis of Advanced age Mortality Data. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: This is a paper from the session on the Aging Process at the January 15-18, 2023, 2023 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.