Description: Mortality in the U.S. states at ages 80 and older and over years 1959–2011 analyzed and compared with mortality levels in 13 high-longevity countries.

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Mortality trend risk affects pension plans, life insurers, annuity writers and insurers of workers’ compensation, where the tail claims are mostly annuities. As with many risk sources, mortality risk can be broken down into process risk, parameter risk and model risk. In this paper, process risk, parameter risk and model risk are discussed using the fitted models. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper explores the select period and the wealth effect at older ages, and also examines mortality rates for three distinct senior populations: 1. the U.S. population, through an annual sample of the Medicare database of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2. the life settlement population of an independent life settlement underwriter, 21st Services LLC, and 3. the population implied by the Society of Actuaries' 2008 Valuation Basic Tables VBT.

Description: This paper presents recent trends in obesity prevalence in significant population segments, including overall effects by age, gender and certain racial and ethnic groups, and discusses the ways in which obesity can influence mortality in each of these segments. It provides a synthesis of reported mortality experience relating to these behaviors by risk factors and diseases that will affect any mortality projection.

Description: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: This is the discussant comments for the concurrent Session 4B: Mortality Projections from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: There are three commonly used methods for compiling exposure and death data for use in obtaining crude mortality rates. They are lives, policies and amounts of insurance. This paper investigates the properties of estimators based on lives, amounts and robust alternatives. It is concluded that lives provide the best estimator, even when there is a moderate dependence of mortality rates on amounts of insurance. Presented at the Fourteenth Actuarial Research Conference, lowa City, lowa, September 6, 1979.

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: Discussion of “Health Expectancy” paper and reply from author, Faye Albert. Discussion of Human Behavior: An Impediment to Future Mortality and Discussion of Health, Wealth and Wisdom - Living Long, Living Well: An Actuary Muses on Longevity