Description: This is the Understanding Multimorbidites abstract authored by Sam Gutterman for Session 6B of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that improves upon current multivariate statistical models for predicting the pre-payment rate of reverse mortgages, which are heavily data-driven. The prosposed model extends a semi-Markovian joint-life mortality model to incorporate three main termination modes of reverse mortgages: death, long-term care LTC entry, and non-health related termination.

Description: This is an abstract of a 1998 presentation from the 33rd Annual Actuarial Research Conference that introduces a family of fractional age assumptions and discusses its usefulness in estimating mortality rates and calculating actuarial present values. Members of the family include the familiar uniform distribution of deaths, constant force, and Balducci assumptions.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that presents an actuarial model which determines benefits to be paid in phased retirement and in full retirement. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2011.

Description: The abstract for a paper that describes the history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. Presented at The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure symposium held July 14-15, 2005 in Washington, DC.

Description: There is a large literature on claims reserving. However most of the stochastic models are too complex and end up being a black box for practitioners. They also tend to be over parameterized, which has the effect that they tend to model historical observations very accurately, but they do not necessarily perform well when predicting future claims. This paper applies a Bayesian method that was developed for forecasting very short series with stable [seasonal] patterns. It is constructed on basic Bayesian concepts and leads to very simple prediction formulas. It is then compared with several other methods as to their predictive effectiveness. In so doing, it departs from the traditional ‘triangle-shaped’ framework for development data.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that develops a method to estimate the two parameters of the discrete stable distribution.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents a Bayesian model for analyzing time-dependent data. The model allows for the possibility of a shift in the level and/or a shift in the variance of the process at all time points. An example of simulated data will be shown as well as the results of four macroeconomic time series data: inflation, interest, unemployment, and wage. The fitted data of the model is compared against the actual through the use of prediction intervals and the creation of a new measure, called the 'modified Akaike Information Criterion'.

Description: This is an abstract for a research paper that compares the generalized linear array model [GLAM] and Lee-Carter models by fitting them to Swedish mortality data. GLAM is presented as an alternative to Lee-Carter for modeling mortality by age and calendar year.

Description: Abstracts of various papers published in ARCH 1983 Vol. 1