Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: This article attempts to make a modest contribution to the dialogue on the potential and risks associated with novel treatments such as cell & gene therapies. With a fast-expanding roster of what are believed to be one-time treatments at ever increasing price points aimed at curing a wider swatch of the population, they are as much a source of relief for patients stuck in medical limbo, as they are a source of anxiety for payers.

Description: Interview on opportunities for InsurTechs in Life and Health reinsurance. Themes covered include digital distribution and digital health data. The article also shares insights into the role of the reinsurer when working with InsurTechs.

Description: New digital data known as alternative data is everywhere. Our industry has seen the financial, and hi-tech industries leverage new digital data to expand their key offerings and core services. From the lens of the global life and health industry, new digital data is still searching to be further understood. Risk assessment is a current focus area for using alternative data. A key question is even though risk assessment has always been data-driven, can it now move to the next level with the arrival of this alternative data. Can we use alternative data to make the risk assessment process quicker, cheaper, or faster thereby driving more sales and better conversion rates. It is an exciting time! With the increased adoption of health and well-being apps, data such as physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and mental wellness is now readily available. Expanded data such as digital biomarkers, IoT data, electronic health records and many more can also be accessed. However, how to effectively implement alternative data remains a challenge across the industry. We firmly believe it is, and will continue to be, imperative to take a structured approach to alternative data through a set of key considerations and a framework of principles.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.

Description: This is the second part of a 2 part series on Real options analysis (ROA). This article looks into the limitations of using financial option theory when doing real options analysis with projects that are long-dated and uncertain, such as: 1. First-degree homogeneity, 2. Uncertainty must derive from Brownian motion, and 3. Risk neutrality.

Description: The mismatch between how interest rate impacts the value of assets and liabilities could have material negative impact to companies’ earnings and surplus. To quantify and mitigate the impact of such mismatches, companies have used matching a combination of duration and convexity. I will review these measurement techniques and their limitations.

Description: Telehealth benefits, obstacles, and delivery systems

Description: In today’s market of post-pandemic consolidation and org chart streamlining, we’ve observed significant changes to actuarial career development and advancement opportunities. But, those changes aren’t occurring in equal measures across the arc of the actuarial career. Our focus is on the impact felt by experienced reinsurance actuaries.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.