Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: How to set asset assumption, at the cycle or through the cycle and other considerations

Description: Summary of April 2020 Investment Section Town Hall and come additional commentary.

Description: While many know that machine learning is a big deal and even have a general idea of what it is, many do not know what machine learning can do for them. As an alternative to citing achievements or explaining algorithms, this article outlines the challenges that occur in statistics and the solutions that machine learning offers. Some of those challenges include correlated predictors, missing data, data interaction, and prediction intervals. Corresponding solutions include regularization technics, missing value imputation with KNN, tree based models, and cluster analysis for backtesting.

Description: Time Track: Analyzing Historical Asset Returns by Richard Q. Wendt from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, September 2000, Issue No. 35.

Description: Why Write Variable Products When You Can Put the Money Directly into the Stock Market?

Description: Profitability of traditional life and health products has long been considered less sensitive to changes in interest rates than profitability of universal life, SPDAs, or other “interest-sensitive” products. Consequently, traditional products have often been priced with a single deterministic interest scenario.

Description: The Case Against Stock in Corporate Pension Funds

Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: Summarized the 2013 Investment Contest, listing winners in three categories.