Description: This summary is intended to provide the pension actuary with guidance in interpreting and using the termination and retirement information in the 2003 SOA Pension Plan Termination and Retirement Study. The tables in the study were developed based on 1.7 million life years of data from 112 plans collected primarily from actuarial consulting firms for the period 1995 – 2000.

Description: This study summarizes the results of the the Society of Actuaries' Non-Mortality Decrement Task Force data collection effort of plan turnover data for years 1994-2000. Service, by itself, seems not to be a good predictor of retirement. Service and age are each good predictors for termination it is found. The report is designed to offer actuaries information about turnover as it pertains to defined benefit plans.

Description: Employee termination and retirement rates affect the valuation of employee benefit plans and thus are of concern to actuaries. To provide timely experience for the profession, the Society of Actuaries Pension Plan Turnover and Retirement Rates Committee organized a data collection effort. Thirty-two contributors provided almost 1.8 million life years of pension plan turnover data for years 1994-2000. This report documents the data assembly and verification procedures used in collecting the data.

Description: This article discusses Jed Frees’ book in progress, “Regression Modeling with Actuarial and Financial Applications” which offers a synthesized introduction to regression and time series.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents a forecasting model of economic assumptions that are inputs to projections of the Social Security system. Social Security projections are made to help policymakers understand the financial stability of the system.

Description: The insurance industry is known to have high operating expenses in the financial services sector. Insurers, investors and regulators are interested in models to understand the behavior of expenses. However, the current practice ignores skewness, occasional negative values as well as their temporal dependence. Addressing these three features, this presentation develops a longitudinal model of insurance company expenses that can be used for prediction, to identify unusual behavior, and to measure firm efficiency. Specifically, it uses a three parameter asymmetric Laplace density for the marginal distribution of insurers’ expenses in each year. Copula functions are employed to accommodate their temporal dependence. As a function of explanatory variables, the location parameter allows the presenters to analyze an insurer’s expenses in light of the firm’s characteristics. Their model can be interpreted as a longitudinal quantile regression.

Description: This presentation develops a micro–level stochastic model for the run–off of automobile insurance claims. The analysis uses policy exposure, claims and payments experience data from vehicle insurance portfolios obtained from a major general insurance company in Singapore. The data are from the General Insurance Association 'GIA' of Singapore, an organization comprising most of the general insurers in Singapore. Modelling the run–off of individual Reported But Not Settled [RBNS] claims is the very aim of the work. The presenters focus on the following components of the development process: the time to an event, the conditional event type, the conditional payment type if any, and the conditional severity if any. They distinguish three types of events: settlement without any payments made during development, settlement with a payment and a payment without settlement. Given that a payment is to be made, the conditional payment type model describes the probability that it will be one of three claim types, or any possible combination of them. The conditional severity component describes the claim amount structure according to the combination of types paid. The presenters provide appropriate statistical models for each component and calibrate them to the available data. These building blocks are consequently used to predict the future development of open RBNS claims.

Description: Automobile insurers classify the risks that they underwrite in order to subdivide the portfolio into classes of risks with similar profiles. While some insurers may have sufficient historical data, several others may not have significant volume of experience data in order to produce reliable claims predictions to help enhance their risk classification systems. A database containing a pooled experience of several insurers thereby helps to produce a more fair, reliable, and equitable premium structure for all risks concerned. This paper uses multilevel models to analyze the data on claim counts provided by the General Insurance Association of Singapore, an organization consisting of most of the general insurers in Singapore. The multilevel nature of the data is due to the following: a certain vehicle is observed over a period of years and is insured by a particular insurance company under a certain 'fleet' policy. The authors show how intercompany data lead to a priori premiums and a posteriori corrections to these initial premiums. Specific focus is made in understanding the intercompany effects using various count distribution models [Poisson, negative binomial, zero–inflated and hurdle Poisson]. The performance of these various models is compared the authors also investigate how to use the historical claims of a company, fleet and/or vehicle in order to correct for the premium initially set.

Description: This paper provides an overview of deductible ratemaking , and the pros and cons of various approaches under different parametric models are compared

Description: Data files for presentation.