Description: It is well accepted that, for ages 30 and above, human mortality rates increase with age, yet no established graduation method makes direct use of this knowledge. Such a method is offered in this paper.

Description: This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the determination of the cost of vesting by a method not hitherto demonstrated to the Society. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: The subject of this paper is a financial model for pension planning purposes. The focus of the model is from an individual's point of view with the idea to assist him/her in planning for a financially secure retirement income. The model is dynamic and stochastic, operates in nominal and real terms, and goes beyond the age of retirement. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1981, Vol. 1.

Description: In calculations involving the distribution of total claims in a risk theory setting, several authors have found it desirable to approximate a risk-theoretic distribution by use of the incomplete gamma function. A recent paper evaluated an excess loss ratio premium by use of a gamma distribution whose first and second moments agreed with those of the risk-theoretic loss distribution. A discussion of that paper pointed out that a translated gamma distribution allowed one to make the approximate distribution agree with the risk-theoretic distribution as far as the first three moments are concerned. The method presented in this paper allows one to make as many moments of the approximate distribution as desired agree with those of the risk-theoretic loss distribution. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.

Description: This paper was prepared to facilitate discussions with the New York State Insurance Department concerning price regulation and the application of minimum loss ratio standards for individual health insurance. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1982, Vol. 34.

Description: The basic principle introduced in this paper is that the expected value of receipts on any insurance policy is equal to the expected value of payouts. Using an expected value approach, rather than present values, offers an interesting conceptual framework which might provide a possible starting point in risk theory to consider statistical variation about these expected values.

Description: Traditional methods of addressing reserves and liabilities have failed to cope with the problems of escalating claim costs, frequent rate increases, and different opinions as to what liabilities should be recognized. This paper reexamines these issues, discusses shortcomings of current methods and proposes a new approach to the total subject. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: This predictive modeling for life insurers paper, “Predictive Model Learning of Stochastic Simulations” by John Hegstrom is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: This paper proposes to put the environment into financial markets. It explains how to do it, and why the financial approach is practically the only one able to stop and invert environmental degradation. The author concentrates on deforestation which is the largest environmental problem in the third world, and explains how to start the project and what kind of optimization problems should be solved for applications of the project.