Description: GDP growth has slowed as numerous headwinds have emerged. This article summarizes a research paper by Mark Alberts and Max Rudolph that addresses reasons why this is so and how risk managers can address using scenarios.

Description: This report summarizes a study that estimates the total economic burden of the opioid crisis in the United States from 2015 through 2018 and projects future costs of the opioid epidemic for 2019.

Description: The Study was designed to elicit reasons behind the participants’ judgments about the future course of the four variables. In the first round participants were asked to provide judgments about the value of the four variables in 2024 and the reasons behind their judgments. The four variables were 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa yield. In addition, they were asked to list future developments that could cause historical trends in the variables to change. Finally they were asked to express their views on how the judgmental process employed in this study might influence the use and interpretation of traditional actuarial e.g., stochastic, deterministic estimation processes or to aid in planning. The data were collated between rounds and in the second Round, the responses of the group were provided to the participants.

Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Appendix F is round 1 future developments from the Delphi report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all of the appendices.

Description: This panel discussion session presents social indicators using a variety of statistical approaches and relates them to societal changes. The concept of using mortality data as a social indicator is also discussed.

Description: Chapter 3 of the Price, Waterhouse study contains an extensive collection of descriptive tables. From Study of Public Financial Guarantee Programs, M-FI96-2.

Description: This paper provides a high-level review of climate models for the actuary and shows they are not impenetrable, intriguing the reader enough to seek out additional resources.

Description: Many countries have suffered the ups and downs of the COVID-19pandemic, and Mexico is no exception. Even worse, in contrast withEuropean countries that saw numbers dip during the summer of2020, Mexico did not. A first peak was reached at the end of July2020, then a slight decrease in the following two months. SinceOctober, Mexico has experienced the worst increasing trend of thewhole epidemic. In this article, Arturo Erdely, a professor of actuarialscience, explains this increase.

Description: This session discussion is about the government fiscal policies and the budget deficit. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 15, No. 2.