Description: This predictive modeling for life insurers paper, “Predictive Model Learning of Stochastic Simulations” by John Hegstrom is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: Traditional pension cost methods are based on the actuarial present value of future benefits [which is a mean value]. As a consequence, these cost methods are deficient because they cannot provide plan sponsors with certain valuable information such as the probability that the accumulation of a particular sequence of contributions will ultimately provide sufficient funds to pay benefits, or the size of fund needed to ensure that retirees' lifetime benefits are paid with a specified probability. In response to these deficiencies, a new family of cost methods, called a-percentile cost methods, is developed. These cost methods are based on the probability of adequately covering all participants' benefits. Expressions for the normal cost, the accrued liability and the gain are provided. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1993, Vol. 45.

Description: This paper first discusses the history of the legislation of the joint and survivor benefits for the uniformed service personnel. It then goes on to address the specific actuarial assumptions made and the formulas developed for applying these assumptions for adaptability to the UNIVAC. This paper closes with specific programming procedures involved in using the UNIVAC.

Description: In calculations involving the distribution of total claims in a risk theory setting, several authors have found it desirable to approximate a risk-theoretic distribution by use of the incomplete gamma function. A recent paper evaluated an excess loss ratio premium by use of a gamma distribution whose first and second moments agreed with those of the risk-theoretic loss distribution. A discussion of that paper pointed out that a translated gamma distribution allowed one to make the approximate distribution agree with the risk-theoretic distribution as far as the first three moments are concerned. The method presented in this paper allows one to make as many moments of the approximate distribution as desired agree with those of the risk-theoretic loss distribution. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.

Description: In March this year a charter for the new corporation, the College Retirement Equities Fund, was granted by the State of New York and it is expected that within a few months the Fund will begin operations as a supplement to TIAA annuities. The purpose of this paper is to describe this rather novel type of corporation, which presents some unusual and interesting actuarial problems. Comparisons of the performance of fixed annuities vs. variable annuities are provided.