Description: "Establishing Methods for Annual Updates to Cohort Life Expectancies – R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAAManaging Director of Research, Society of Actuaries Research Institute Longevity Disparity across Communities in the United States – Lijia Guo, Ph.D., ASA, MAAA , US Government Accountability Office, Applied Research and Methods Division, Washington DC"

Description: "Demographic components of Future Potential Old-Age Support Ratios – Kirill Andreev, Ph.D., United Nations, Population Division, New York, Mila Andreeva, KAMA Consulting Effect of internal Migration on the Health of Taiwan’s Elderly People – Jack C. Yue, Ph.D., – National Chengchi University, Department of Statistics, Taipei, TaiwanPopulation Aging and Canada’s Social Contract: Covid-19 Catalyst for Change – Douglas Andrews, FSA, FCIA, Ph.D., Lori J. Curtis, Ph.D., – University of Waterloo"

Description: Our understanding of the biology of aging is increasing rapidly, creating insight into how and why any organism is aging. Some of the mechanisms by which the process of aging occurs in mammals are sufficiently well understood that clinical trials targeting them in humans to improve later life health and longevity are now being undertaken. Translating results seen in mammals to humans has the potential to increase life expectancy far beyond what we have seen historically. Come explore the current state and outlook of research.

Description: Recent and potential near future extreme experiences are leading us to a new normal rather than back to the prior environment. Learn more about several examples of past Regime Changes along with a detailed discussion of how recent disruptions lead toward a persistent change in the business, social and political environment. Come develop an understanding of these drivers of change as well as the likely impacts on the Financial Services industry.

Description: Adjusting GAAP reinsurance reserves to account for reinsurance protection against the events that trigger direct reserve constraints (such as NPR capping or LFPB flooring) can be a challenge any time. Ceding a block of business that is already in force increases the challenge—especially if one of those constraints was already present at inception of the reinsurance. This article builds on previous work (published in the July 2022 and June 2023 issues) to show how to measure initial reinsurance reserves in a way that complies with AICPA guidance and prepares for effective measurement of subsequent changes in the effects of the constraints.

Description: A periodic update from the chairperson on section council activities and outlook for the coming year.

Description: Read the January 2020 issue of International News published by the International Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: The October/November 2013 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"