Description: Model design is an important part of being an actuary, and the SOA highlights the importance of the actuarial control cycle of model design, evaluation and monitoring. What tools are at our disposal for these steps? When should we be concerned or excited about model performance? Can we, and should we, use machine learning tools to assist with model improvement or development?

Description: The introduction of new gene and cell treatments is not without scrutiny. Although these treatments are often curative, they come with a significant price tag. Health plan actuaries find themselves wondering if the intended outcome supports the cost and whether the potential medical cost savings will offset the high drug cost. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) reviews results from clinical trials to produce a report evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new therapies. Depending on the results, the ICER report can be used by pharmaceutical companies to justify the high cost or by the health plan to do the opposite. Go beyond the ICER report and discuss an alternative method for valuing new drugs using nonmedical revenue streams, such as disability and nutrition benefits, and return-on-investment modeling. By attending this session, you will have a better understanding of the nonmedical revenue streams, such as disability and nutrition assistance benefits, that may offset the cost of a drug and how those revenue streams can be incorporated into return-on-investment modeling.

Description: Gather with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, pension, investment, product strategy, and more.

Description: Introducing Random Effects into Risk Score Models

Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: Much of the work performed by disability insurance actuaries depends on the availability of accurate and detailed data, which is not always as simple as it sounds. Explore a variety of data challenges faced by disability actuaries, along with potential solutions. Potential topics include finding relevant data, the impact of poor data on valuation work, the impact of new privacy rules, and the potential bias in the data used to develop predictive models.