Description: Many insurers preparing market consistent financial statements encounter the issue of developing volatility assumptions for equity options and guarantees that are longer than any observable market data. This presentation develops a generalization of the classical Black Scholes option pricing model that is consistent with the European CRO Forum's framework for valuing non-hedgeable risk. The presentation argues that, with reasonable parameter choices, the model fits observed volatility surfaces well enough that it can be used to estimate implied volatilities where no market data exists.

Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that studies Gerber-Shiu functions and dividend payments in an insurance risk model driven by a spectrally negative Levy process of bounded variation.

Description: The theme of this paper relates to solving portfolio selection problems using linear programming. The authors extend the linear optimization framework for Conditional Value-at-Risk-based portfolio selection problems to optimization over a more general class of risk measure known as the class of Coherent Distortion Risk Measure. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012 Vol. 1.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers an alternative way of estimating distribution parameters for nonnegative random variables.

Description: Article describes how to write effective model documentation

Description: With many complex regulatory changes on the horizon as well as pressures to ensure model accuracy from auditors, regulatory requirements and new actuarial standards of practice, the importance of robust model validation is coming to the forefront of actuaries’ minds. What was previously a day-two task for many companies is becoming just as important as model development! In this session, you will hear from those that have been deeply involved in building model validation frameworks and tools in responses to regulatory changes GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements (“LDTI”) and Principles Based Reserves (“PBR”).

Description: Read the August 2020 issue of The Modeling Platform published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: This article discussed modeling the P&C reinsurance market using an Agent Based Model to provide insights into the market. The characteristics of this marketplace provide credibility to this type of modeling. Specifically, the P&C reinsurance market has few major players, very little product differentiation, and low barriers to entry. In addition established competitors are volume-constrained due to prior business and capacity decisions made based on estimated product costs and prices.

Description: These files shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.