Description: A review of the Bridging the Gap Series: Application of Predictive Modeling in VA/FIA Risk Management at the Equity Based Guarantees Conference in Chicago.

Description: Can we improve upon traditional methods of risk measurement and risk selection? Panelists discuss potential applications of predictive modeling, including individual underwriting, group rating and provider reimbursement. They focus on ways in which predictive modeling can be used to improve risk selection, experience rating and provider reimbursement. A session at the Health/Pension Spring Meeting held in New Orleans, Louisiana June 15-17, 2005. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2.

Description: This chapter focuses on creating practical models that aid in the prediction of the risk of readmission to a specific hospital within 30 days of discharge for Medicare patients, to aid in the identification and stratification of at-risk patients for hospitals considering building an intervention program in a cost-effective manner. For readers who wish to develop their own predictive model, a dataset is provided on the Actexmadriver.com website, and R code is provided in the appendix to this chapter.

Description: The guest editorial details some valuable lessons during the author’s career as an employee benefits (mostly retirement) consultant, turned P&C predictive modeling, reporting and data warehousing lead, turned an analytic strategist and independent consultant.

Description: Research project that reviewed and inventoried the range of quality and efficiency measures that demonstrate the performance of hospitals and physicians. Besides outlining key areas of consideration for quality and efficiency measurement, this report also describes future opportunities for actuaries and other health professionals interested in this evolving area. The inventory part of this report is in a separate document.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: This paper shows how discrete multivariate analysis or multidimensional contingency table methods may be applied to data arising in actuarial work. A brief introduction to the theory is followed by two detailed examples of its application. Finally, the concluding remarks indicate how the procedure could be incorporated into a complete rate-making procedure. This work was performed for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Description: This paper deals with how the credibility levels change based on this lack knowledge. Group insuraace models are used, bill some of tile techniques could apply to any insurance risk.

Description: In order to better develop skill in predictive analytics, the author suggests looking to professionals who design innovative predictive models and, more importantly, find effective ways to communicate their findings to a large audience.