Description: Incorporating Pended Claims in Medical IBNR Estimates. Issue No. 45.

Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: This paper develops the formula for estimation of multivariate copula. These results can be applied to the estimation of correlation coefficients. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 Vol. 2 .

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: Feature article about the use of approximations.

Description: Article from The Actuary, October 1985 – Volume No. 19, Issue No. 8 that talks about the Rule of 72.

Description: European insurance regulation pretends to capture and rely on the 1-year 1-in-200 VaR. But there cannot exist any scientific calibration of such measure. Why?

Description: Traditional risk scoring models include only fixed (non-random) demographic and condition-based variables. By including the provider effect as part of the risk scoring model as a random effect, we can get better estimates of provider performance (incorporating practice patterns conditional on patient morbidity profile). This approach can be generalized to study other factors that are now masked in error variance (i.e. area, Social Determinants) but if modeled could give us better estimates of risk

Description: A guide to the protocols and rules necessary to ensure an accurate savings comparison when using an historical claims repricing in the PBM RFP process.

Description: In this continuation of our July 2013 article we explore an algorithm for evaluating Hidden Markov Models in detail. A preferred method in speech recognition technology, Hidden Markov Models are a promising technique when dealing with data you suspect may be driven by a change in a unobservable state. The example in the article is provided in an Excel workbook for the reader to follow along with.