Description: This paper develops a method for estimating the future claim costs of known ongoing large medical claims. It applies Least Squares analysis of historical experience to derive two arrays of factors. One array is to be applied as a vector inner product with claim costs already incurred and/or paid to project a total future claim cost. The second array distributes the total future claim cost over the months following the analysis date.

Description: This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used.

Description: This is the abstract of the paper Minimum Quadratic Distance Estimators for the Zeta Parametric Family. In this paper, we propose a new estimator, based on quadratic distance, asymptotically fully efficient for parameter values greater than 2 and highly efficient for smaller values, but computationally more appealing than the maximum likelihood estimator we compare its asymptotic variance with that of the moment estimator and an estimator proposed by Seal, based on the ratio of the observed frequencies of the first two classes. We also discuss a goodness-of-fit test and a test to discriminate between the zeta distribution and the Poisson distribution truncated at 0.

Description: This presentation suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the inter rate generator used.

Description: There are three commonly used methods for compiling exposure and death data for use in obtaining crude mortality rates. They are lives, policies and amounts of insurance. This paper investigates the properties of estimators based on lives, amounts and robust alternatives. It is concluded that lives provide the best estimator, even when there is a moderate dependence of mortality rates on amounts of insurance. Presented at the Fourteenth Actuarial Research Conference, lowa City, lowa, September 6, 1979.

Description: Users of statistical packages should be more aware of the influence that outlying data points can have on their statistical analyses. Robust procedures provide formal methods to spot these outliers and reduce their influence. While a few robust procedures are mentioned in this article, one is emphasized and it is motivated by maximum likelihood estimation to make it seem more natural. In this article, the author will try to provide some background, beginning with maximum likelihood estimation of one parameter, that will hopefully make robust estimation seem natural and rather easy.

Description: The theory underlying the Moving Weighted Average graduation method is restated in the language of linear algebra which provides for an enrichment of the family of formulas. A comparison of the results of applying six members of the family to 100 simulated data sets is provided.