Description: This 2000 word essay won the Joint Management Risk Section 2016 Essay Prize, summarizing the present challenges, potential solutions and Actuarial opportunities.

Description: Tells about the top 10 risks that are ranked by insurers to be the most dangerous.

Description: Is Risk/Return a sound tool for decision-making? No. It is not consistent, not objective, distorts decision and degrades governance. Why? What shall we do then?

Description: Describes a process for identifying relevant industry experience to credibility-weight with relevant company experience to set modeling assumptions and margins.

Description: This paper considers the ERM problem as an adaptation and stability problem of complex system development. The basic approach of W. Ross Ashby and its development by S. Beer are applied. The author advances the cybernetic functional feedback model as applied to the integrated ERM structural mechanism. Such formulation of the ERM problems seems promising to correctly detail and structurally integrate the various issues, including operational and financial systems linkage, key adaptation parameter of time and its different periods, optimal activity and others.

Description: In this Chapter we present a novel way for estimating aggregated EC figures based on Bayesian copula estimation. Contrary to the classic approach of using a single inter-risk- correlation matrix we derive a probability distribution of possible correlation matrices that enables us to tackle the important issue of parameter uncertainty. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Quantitative operational risk assessment is essentially based on stochastic scenario modeling of operational loss sequences. Given the lack of reliable historical data in most cases, mathematical methods should meet even stronger requirements in terms of results received and include specific features, namely: rare event analysis, uncertainty analysis and human factor analysis, etc. In this paper, the analytical-statistical simulation approach ASSA is considered as the most flexible approach to stochastic scenario loss sequence modeling and compared with Markov chain, fault/event tree and Monte Carlo, in terms of scenario loss sequence model adequacy and calculation cost. Probabilistic risk analysis software PRAISE and some applications are given. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: Economic capital is an embedded part of the banking risk management and regulatory framework. The insurance industry has relied on rating agency and regulatory formulas that have been criticized as overcapitalizing and not appropriately differentiating risk drivers in the capital formulation. The emergence of C-3 Phase I and C-3 Phase II have introduced an economic approach to capital in the insurance industry. This half-day seminar takes a detailed look at the subject of economic capital. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries 2005, Volume 31, No. 1: 2005 New Orleans Life Spring Meeting, May 22-24, 2005, Session 9 Seminar.

Description: A collection of essays that discuss the principles and ideas underpinning the ORSA initiative and the risk metrics used for decision making.