Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of Independence

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns

Description: Describes how the mantra of 'tax cuts will pay for themselves" along with the political unwillingness to cut spending (extant since the 1980s), has led to this increasing debt problem in the U.S., reaching $17 trillion at time of writing. Other countries are behaving in a similar fashion, and it can be only a matter of time before the globe may reach another crisis, this time based on excessive government debt coupled with fewer interested investors.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Simulation of Long-Term Stock Returns: Fat-Tails and Mean Reversion

Description: Investment Fallacies: Bitcoin Fallacies

Description: Discussion of how meaningful GAAP ROE is as a measurement of management performance or how well management has deployed capital over a reporting period.